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FW: Inventory of diesel engines in Region 5

Steering Committee,

Jennifer Dunn of U.S. EPA region 5 has assembled a substantial amount of
information on diesel engine populations in the Region 5 states. If you're
interested, you can review this at your leisure and we will discuss down the
road if, how and when we can incorporate any of this information into our
inventory efforts. As Grant Heatherington at WDNR does much of the Nonroad
work for many of the states affected, I've forwarded it to him and he
indicated he would probably be able to look into it and do some
intercomparisons with their current diesel population data at some point in
the next month or so. I've posted the message with all attachments on the
RAPIDS message board:

http://glin.net/forum/view.php?site=glad&bn=glad_rapids&key=1160700064

Jon
______________________
Jon Dettling
Great Lakes Commission
734-971-9135
dettling@glc.org

-----Original Message-----
From: Dunn.Jennifer@epamail.epa.gov [mailto:Dunn.Jennifer@epamail.epa.gov] 
Sent: Wednesday, October 11, 2006 12:10 PM
To: dettling@glc.org
Subject: Fw: Inventory of diesel engines in Region 5
                                                                

Jon,

I have compared the vehicle/equipment populations in EPA's MOBILE6 and
NON-ROAD to those that I generated.  Below, I summarize the differences
and provide some of the data sources that I use.  Whereas in EPA models
only national-scale data are incorporated (and state level data are
estimated from the national scale data) I adopted state-level data
wherever it was available.  I understand that states decide what
populations to use in their modeling efforts and I'd like to clarify
that I generated the numbers in the inventory I sent to you to give my
coworkers and I a sense of how many diesel engines are in the region.
We do not use these numbers for rigorous analyses.

I would be happy to discuss these data with you although I will be out
of the office beginning this afternoon.  I will return next Tuesday.
Additionally, while I would be interested in participating in your
conference calls and/or in-person meetings, I will be on leave from
December to March so I am unavailable for the January meeting.

All attachements follow the discussion.
The last attachment was too big. You can access it at:

http://www.ladco.org/reports/rpo/MWRPOprojects/Emissions/Pechan_Final_report
.pdf

Best Regards,
Jennifer

1. Trucks
The truck populations in MOBILE 6 derive from a report generated by
Arcadis in 1998 [Attachment 1].  They used a 1996 database from R. L.
Polk and company.  I used state-level 2002 Census Bureau data to
generate the number of trucks operating in Region 5 [Attachment 2].
Because MOBILE6 does not break the data down specifically into
state-level data, I think it is best to compare the overall national
numbers to see how well the two data sources (Census Bureau and Arcadis
report) agree.   The 2002 Census Bureau data gives the total national
population of trucks operating on diesel engines as 6,125,400.  The
ARCADIS report gives 5,415,781 for the year 2002.

2. Buses
To estimate bus populations, MOBILE 6 uses 1996 data from Polk and 1994
data from FTA.  I used 2003 data from FHWA (see website referenced in
inventory).  Again, because MOBILE6 does not break down the numbers into
state-level populations, I think it is best to compare the overall
national numbers to see how well the two data sources agree. The total
national bus population in MOBILE6 in 2003 was estimated at 596,088.
The FHWA source gives an estimate of 776,550.

3. Construction Equipment
In developing NONROAD2004, EPA used data from the Power Systems Research
(PSR) 2003 database to calculate national populations of all non-road
equipment [Attachment 3].  According to this data source, the national
construction equipment population is 452,748.  In the Region 5
inventory, the article that I site as the source of the national
equipment population is also from 2003.  Its population estimate is from
an industry research firm (MacKay and Company) that found the national
equipment population to be 1,429,000 [Attachment 4].  I used the same
allocation method as NONROAD does (dollar value of construction by
state) to break down this national total to the state level.   A third
analysis of the construction equipment population in the Region 5 states
(except Minnesota) was completed by Pechan in 2004 for LADCo [Attachment
5].  Pechan conducted a survey and found the construction equipment
population to be 380,522.   If I used the national number from NONROAD
to estimate the construction equipment population in Region 5, the
number of pieces of equipment would be 79,857.  Using the 1.4 million
number, I calculate a population of 252,073, which is much closer to the
LADCO estimate.

4. Agriculture
EPA again used the PSR database (2003) while I used the USDA National
Agriculture Statistics Service 2002 Census of Agriculture.  Pechan
compared these two sources in their report to LADCo and found that the
USDA populations are 2-4 times higher than the NONROAD model estimates.
Pechan, for reasons they list on p. 16 of the attached report, believe
that the NONROAD values have a greater level of uncertainty than the
USDA numbers.  They also list possible explanations for the discrepancy
between NONROAD and USDA numbers.

5. Other
I used the NONROAD national totals and used population to allocate these
numbers to the state level.

6. Locomotives, Waterborne
NONROAD does not contain locomotive or waterborne vessel population
estimates.

Attachment 1: Arcadis Report (Arcadis Report for M6. pdf)
(See attached file: Arcadis Report for M6.pdf)

Attachment 2: Census Bureau Report for IL (VIUS_IL.pdf)
(See attached file: VIUS_IL.pdf)

Attachment 3: Nonroad Engine Population Estimates (Nonroad model
population estimates.pdf)


Attachment 4: Article with 2003 national population estimate
(cexuniverse.pdf)


Attachment 5: Pechan Report on Constr and Ag equipment in LADCo states
(Pechan_Final_report_constr_ag.pdf)


Jennifer B. Dunn, Ph.D.
US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5
77 W. Jackson Blvd. (AR-18J)
Chicago, IL 60604
Phone: 312.353.5899
Fax: 312.886.5824
dunn.jennifer@epa.gov


                                                                        
             Jon Dettling                                               
             <dettling@glc.or                                           
             g>                                                         
                                                                     To 
             10/05/2006 09:21         Jennifer Dunn/R5/USEPA/US@EPA     
             AM                                                      cc 
                                      Steven Rosenthal/R5/USEPA/US@EPA  
                                                                        
              Please respond                                            
                    to                                                  
             dettling@glc.org                                           
                                                                        
                                                                        
                                                                Subject 
                                      RE: Inventory of diesel engines   
                                      in Region 5                       
                                                                        
                                                                        




Jennifer,

Thanks for providing this information. I think it is possible that there
may
be some areas where some interaction with our regional emissions
inventory
team might prove beneficial. Let me explain briefly the operation of
this
team and their treatment of diesel engine emissions.

The team is made up of staff of the state agencies of the eight states
that
border the Great Lakes. This includes the Region 5 states as well as
Pennsylvania and New York. The group focuses exclusively on toxic
emissions
and does not address criteria pollutants. The group works together on
developing and comparing methods and data sources. Each state does their
own
emission estimation or compilation and submits it to a regional
database.
There are QA/QC checks that are run and often some corrections made
prior to
publishing a regional dataset.

Diesel emissions in the inventory fall into two categories, on-road and
off-road. Typically, on-road emissions are estimated using EPA's MOBILE6
and
non-road are done with the EPA's NONROAD model. Many states do these
estimations themselves, while some obtain equivalent data from EPA's
NEI. In
most, if not all, cases our data would be what you would expect to come
from
these models (assuming you are familiar with them). I'm curious to know
if
you have done any comparisons with the diesel engine population data you
have compiled and the population assumptions that are within these
models. I
think this would be the simplest assessment to give a rough idea of the
extent to which incorporating your data might affect our inventory.

If it is found that there are some significant differences, it may be
worth
looking more closely at where these come from and assess the quality of
the
different data sources. We would then have to look into the feasibility
of
including better diesel engine population data into the emission
estimation
tools mentioned above.

I look forward to talking with you more about this. Our group has
conference
calls every 2-3 weeks and in-person meetings about 3 times per year,
often
in Chicago. It may be possible for us to include a discussion of this on
a
future call or at our next meeting (likely in January). As it is the
state
agency staff that do nearly all of the work, the extent to which this is
followed up on will depend highly on their interest in pursuing it.

Best regards, Jon

______________________
Jon Dettling
Great Lakes Commission
734-971-9135
dettling@glc.org
-----Original Message-----
From: Dunn.Jennifer@epamail.epa.gov
[mailto:Dunn.Jennifer@epamail.epa.gov]
Sent: Wednesday, October 04, 2006 6:00 PM
To: dettling@glc.org
Cc: Rosenthal.Steven@epamail.epa.gov
Subject: Inventory of diesel engines in Region 5

Jon,

Steve Rosenthal asked me to share the information I have collected on
the diesel engine population within Region 5.  I have attached a
spreadsheet that contains my analysis.  (Data contained on "Table" tab.)
Please note that I had solid numbers for only a few of the engine
categories and estimated the rest with a methodology that I describe
under "Calculation Notes and Data Sources."   We typically use these
numbers to make macroscale statements such as, "There are approximately
3.3 diesel engines in Region 5."  I do not have error estimates for
these numbers.

I have also compiled emissions inventories for diesel engines in Region
5 using the 2002 NEI and the NATA.  If it would be helpful for me to
send those along, just let me know.

If you have any questions about this analysis please don't hesitate to
contact me.  Please note that I will be on leave from December to
mid-March.

(See attached file: Engine Inventory 11_1_05.xls)

Best Regards,

Jennifer B. Dunn, Ph.D.
US Environmental Protection Agency, Region 5
77 W. Jackson Blvd. (AR-18J)
Chicago, IL 60604
Phone: 312.353.5899
Fax: 312.886.5824
dunn.jennifer@epa.gov


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