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Predicting beach bacterial counts: ES&T online



http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2005/jun/tech/kc_beach.html



Environmental Science and Technology online
Technology News – June 29, 2005
Predicting beach bacterial counts
A new method for estimating E. coli concentrations could help ensure that
beach advisories or closures are based on more near-real-time data than
they are now. Current monitoring procedures cause a 24-hour delay between
sample collection and test results, so predictions of today’s conditions
are based on yesterday’s E. coli ratings, says Richard Whitman, station
chief for the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Lake Michigan Ecological
Research Station.
To address this problem, USGS scientists developed a mathematical model,
dubbed Project SAFE (Swim Advisory Forecast Estimate). Weather and
water-quality measurements—such as rainfall, wave height, and lake
turbidity—are plugged in daily, and preliminary results indicate that SAFE
is as much as six times more accurate than other monitoring techniques at
estimating current E. coli counts, according to Whitman. USGS is validating
the method this summer through a pilot project on five Lake Michigan
beaches in Indiana and has proposed expanding it to other Great Lakes
beaches.
USGS is validating the method this summer through a pilot project on five
Lake Michigan beaches in Indiana and has proposed expanding it to other
Great Lakes beaches.




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Meredith Becker Nevers
Aquatic Ecologist
U.S. Geological Survey
Lake Michigan Ecological Research Station
1100 N. Mineral Springs Rd.
Porter, IN 46304
phone (219) 926-8336  ext. 425
fax (219) 929-5792
mnevers@usgs.gov
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