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E-M:/ Global Warming Not Linked to Weather Extremes



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Enviro-Mich message from GreenPlanet <riccawu@MNSi.Net>
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>   E-WIRE PRESS RELEASE    E-WIRE PRESS RELEASE    E-WIRE PRESS RELEASE
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>TO NATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL EDITORS:
>
> SEPP: IPCC Chairman Says Current Weather Extremes Not Linked to any Global
> Warming; 
>Claims by Gore, Environmental Activists Cause for Mistrust, Says Bolin
>
>    FAIRFAX, Va., June 23 /E-Wire/ -- Dr. Bert Bolin, chairman of the
>UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has publicly refuted claims
>by the Clinton Administration and many environmental activist groups that
>any floods, droughts, hurricanes, or other extreme weather patterns are the
>result of rising global temperatures.  "There has been no effect on
>countries from any current change," said Bolin, adding that efforts by
>activists to establish such a link "is why I do not trust the Greens."
>    Bolin, chairman of the IPCC for eight years and a respected Swedish
>meteorologist, raised this point on June 2 in Stockholm, Sweden, during the
>first of two debates on the global warming issue with University of
>Virginia atmospheric physicist S. Fred Singer, former director of the U.S.
>Weather Satellite Service.  Speaking before an audience of scientists,
>journalists, and industry representatives, Bolin remained adamant that
>there has been some human influence on climate, but conceded that "man-made
>increases in temperature arc so small as to be barely detectable."
>    Bolin took issue with the statement by Tim Wirth, U.S. Undersecretary
>of State for Global Affairs, that global warming science was "settled."
>"Tim Wirth may have said that," said Bolin, "but I've talked with him and I
>know he really doesn't mean it." (Bolin is apparently also at odds with a
>group of scientist/activist, who stated in the Wall Street Journal on
>Thursday, June 19, that "scientific questions surrounding global warming
>have largely been resolved and that the government must take quick action,
>including reducing fossil fuel emissions.")
>    For his part, Fred Singer made it clear that the science certainly was
>not settled, and expressed surprise that those at the highest levels of the
>IPCC seemed unaware or unable to respond to many of the latest findings.
>During an hour-long presentation, illustrated with numerous graphs showing
>recentobservations, Singer demonstrated the following points:
>
>    1. An anti-correlation -- discovered by researchers at SEPP -- between
>global temperature over the last century and sea level, i.e. when
>temperature goes up, sea level goes down.  Comparing data on temperature
>and sea level published in the peer-reviewed literature, Singer found that
>the ongoing sea level trend showed a drop between 1925 and 1940, when
>temperatures were rising (recovering from the "Little Ice Age").  If
>confirmed, this would indicate that during a global temperature increase,
>any glacial melting would be more than offset by increased ocean
>evaporation and precipitation (snow) at the poles.
>
>    2. New evidence -- discovered by researchers at SEPP -- of regional
>climate warming at northern mid-latitudes (over Europe and the United
>States), which shows a startling correlation to patterns of commercial
>airline traffic. Singer theorizes that thin contrails of ice particles --
>not CO2 -- are creating a regional warming at the surface.  Airline traffic
>is increasing at a rate of 5 percent per year, yet Singer notes that this
>effect has not been addressed by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on
>Climate Change (IPCC).
>
>    3. Large and rapid natural variations in the temperature and CO2 record
>(from ocean sediment cores and tree-ring data), unrelated to human
>activities, over the entire history of the earth.  Singer demonstrated that
>even in recorded history -- the last 3,000 years -- there have been rapid
>temperature variations, exceeding anything predicted by the IPCC, that
>produced no apparent ill-effects.
>
>    4. The impact of the heat-island effect on land-based temperature
>stations, specifically the research on land-based stations in California by
>meteorologist James Goodridge, which show a wide disparity between
>temperature readings in large-population counties (large increase over
>time), medium-population counties (small increase), and small-population
>counties (no increase at all).
>
>    5. The continued unreliability of computer climate models, including
>the much-touted three-dimensional models.  Singer cited University of
>Virginia meteorologist Patrick Michaels' critique of the IPCC results,
>showing that the claimed temperature trends are still the result of the
>time frame selected -- i.e. when you start and when you stop; and Richard
>Kerr's article in the May 16, 1997 issue of Science, "Greenhouse
>Forecasting Still Cloudy," which reveals considerable doubt about the
>models, even among scientists affiliated with the IPCC.
>
>    6. The impact of solar radiation -- as outlined by Danish scientists
>Eigil Friis-Christensen and Henryk Svensmark -- which affects climate by
>modulating the cosmic radiation, which in turn affects cloudiness.  This
>mechanism has been detailed by respected British science writer Nigel
>Calder in a popular book, The Manic Sun (Pilkington Publishers, 1997),
>which has just been published in Britain, Denmark, and the Netherlands.
>
>    Bolin, who appeared flustered, focused almost entirely on the
>three-dimensional computer modeling, saying only that the climate and CO2
>records over thousands of years were "irrelevant" and that "the only thing
>that's important is the next 100 years."  He did promise, however, that the
>IPCC would examine the impact of commercial airline traffic in its next
>climate change report, and he acknowledged that a greater reliance on
>nuclear power was an option -- though with political considerations -- if
>nations desired to reduce C02 emissions.  "We do not deny the obvious facts
>about energy," he said.
>    In the question-and-answer period that followed, the discussion
>appeared to go decidedly against Dr. Bolin's IPCC position.  Said one
>scientist, Dr.
>Wibjorn Karlen: "What has happened in the last 100 years is in no way
>different from what has happened before.  I cannot be convinced that man is
>so important as to effect the climate."  In wrapping up the session,
>moderator
>Dr. Marian Radetzki noted: "There seems to be agreement among our academic
>colleagues that there is so much disagreement that much more research is
>needed."
>    Singer's Stockholm debates with Bert Bolin came just four days after a
>similar public confrontation with IPCC-affiliated scientist Dr. Eero
>Holopainen in Helsinki, Finland.  Dr. Holopainen, who has a local
>reputation for terrorizing industrialists on the global warming issue, was
>expected to provide some fireworks.  The face-off, before an audience of
>scientists and government officials, was something much less.
>    Dr. Holopainen, who'd had two weeks to prepare a rebuttal, stepped up
>to the lectern, put two transparencies on the projector and then took them
>off with no clear explanation, and then went through a lengthy recitation
>of his professional credentials, especially his IPCC credentials.  Little
>"rebuttal" was given beyond that.  At one point during the
>question-and-answer period, Holopainen held the latest IPCC Climate Change
>Report aloft and said simply, "How can you question this bible?"
>    At every stop during Dr. Fred Singer's five-city speaking tour, he
>stressed that although the IPCC Climate Change Report is generally a good
>compilation of what was known about climate up to that point, the so-called
>Policymakers Summary invariably tends to overstate and to leave out the
>caveats.
>    In Helsinki, Singer received surprising support on this from Robert
>Reinstein, former chief State Department negotiator on the climate treaty
>during the Bush administration.  Attending the presentation with the
>current chief negotiator for Finland, Reinstein stood and confirmed to the
>audience that the wording of the summary did not simply reflect the views
>of the scientists involved but was negotiated at length by international
>delegations. "Because of this," he said, "the summary must be considered
>purely a political document, not a scientific one."
>    As Singer noted later, however, it is the Policymakers Summary not the
>scientific research, that underpins ongoing efforts to impose energy taxes
>and mandatory limits on fossil fuel emissions.
>    Dr. Singer's debates in Stockholm and Helskinki came at the end of a
>highly successful speaking tour that also took him to London, Munich, and
>Copenhagen.  President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project, a
>research group he founded in 1992 to foster environmental policies based on
>sound science, Singer is now accepting invitations for another round of
>environmental seminars and debates when he returns to Europe in the fall.
>He has already received an invitation to speak to the German Society of
>Environmental Geologists and a tentative invitation to address the Danish
>Society of Environmental and Energy Journalists.
>    For more information, see the SEPP Web site at
>http://www.his.com/~sepp/
>
>SOURCE  Science and Environmental Policy Project
>    -0-                             6/23/97
>    /CONTACT:  Candace Crandall of the Science and Environmental Policy
>Project, 703-503-5064, or e-mail, crandall@sepp.org /
>
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