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E-M:/ Tuesday Smog

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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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At 2:00 PM, ozone at Port Huron, MI hit 140 ppb (with
a prior hour over 128 ppb)...both over the level of the
old health standard.

At 2 PM, highest ozone concentrations in the state are
found in Southeastern Michigan  and Michigan's Thumb.

Notable sites, 1 hour average.

Port Huron 140 ppb
New Haven  111 ppb (at 1 pm)
Otisville  100
Warren   103
Oak park  106

At the present time a thunderstorm moving towards the
ENE in Wayne county will be limiting ozone concentrations
in that county.

Thunderstorms in Southwestern Michigan and the Chicago
area will also limit ozone in Western Michigan today.

Yesterday's maximum 8 hour averages;
85 ppb is the numerical level of the 8 hour health
standard:

Scottville  88
Muskegon 101
Holland  103
Coloma  101
Jenison 92
Grand Rapids  86
Evans 88
Kalamazoo  98
Lansing  95
Roselake-Clinton co  93

Houghton Lake  77
Flint 91
Otisville  91
Harbor beach  74
Port Huron  99
New Haven  102
Warren 100
Oak Park 97
Ypsilanti 90
Tecumseh  87
Detroit e 7 mile  83
Detroit Linwood  92
Allen Park  78

Cassopolis  117

Cassopolis data available at:
http://www.in.gov/idem/air/amb/data/ozone/datasite/casso.html


Notable 1 hour maximums:

Muskegon 110
Holland 109
Coloma  116
Lansing 101
Rose lake 103
Port Huron 110
New Haven 124
Warren 109
Detroit Linwood 100


MDEQ Air Quality Division content follows:

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action! Day advisory is currently in effect for Tuesday, June 25th.

No Ozone Action! Days forecasted from Wednesday, June 26th thru Friday, 
June 28th
WEST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action! Day advisory is currently in effect for Tuesday, June 25th.

No Ozone Action! Days forecasted from Wednesday, June 26th thru Friday, 
June 28th

Forecast Discussion

Relief from elevated ozone concentrations is drawing near...

This morning's satellite shows a large area of cloud cover over Minnesota 
extending into northern portions of Wisconsin as well as areas of the Upper 
Peninsula of Michigan. Showers and thunderstorms were rumbling across some 
of these areas as well, with most of the action breaking up during its 
eastward progression. The trigger for the aforementioned cloud cover and 
thunderstorms is a stationary front currently extending from Alpena 
northwestward over Lake Superior. It connects to an area of low pressure 
situated in southwestern Ontario and another stationary front extending 
southwestward across the Dakotas. There is a chance for scattered 
thunderstorm development in the vicinity of this front, but Southern Lower 
Michigan should remain partly to mostly sunny and precipitation free today 
as the front remains north of the area.

A surface low and associated upper level vorticity max near Louisiana is 
tapping into some Gulf moisture which is fueling thunderstorm development 
in the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. Current radar shows precipitation 
extending as far north as central Illinois. Zonal flow in Michigan, 
however, will continue to cut the state off from this moisture. Therefore, 
skies today will remain mostly sunny for much of the day. Cloud cover is 
expected to increase as the day wears on, with scattered cumulus clouds 
making their way into the area. It will be uncomfortably hot with maximum 
daily temperatures topping out near the 90 degree mark and dewpoints in the 
mid to upper 60's.

Wednesday will bring increasing clouds and a greater chance for rain 
(greater than 50% chance). A building ridge in the West should push a 
vorticity max down from Canada and a cold front will move closer to the 
area as well. This should push temperatures down 5-10 degrees F from todays 
highs. In addition the west to southwesterly flow will likely turn more 
northerly and wind speeds will increase causing more turbulent mixing. For 
these reasons, Wednesday looks to be the first day of relief from elevated 
ozone concentrations.

Chances for precip will linger into Thursday until passage of the front 
sometime during the morning hours. Friday should be precipitation free and 
mostly sunny. Thursday and Friday will be more comfortable with 
temperatures around 80 degrees and lower dewpoints. Elevated levels of 
ozone are not a concern for either of these days.

Conclusion

Please note that Tuesday, June 25th is an Ozone Action! Day for all 
participating Michigan counties. Changing weather conditions on Wednesday 
should relieve Michigan of elevated ozone levels. While it is possible that 
isolated 8-hour concentrations could reach the unhealthy for sensitive 
groups level, exceedences are not likely to be widespread enough to cause 
overall concern. Consequently, the Michigan Department of Environmental 
Quality is NOT issuing an Ozone Action Day! for Wednesday, June 26th. 
However, If you are especially sensitive to the quality of the air, please 
take all necessary precautions to ensure your health. This forecast will be 
updated on Friday, June 28th.

Forecast updated on Tuesday, June 25th by Neal Conatser




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Alex J. Sagady & Associates  http://my.voyager.net/~ajs/sagady.pdf

Environmental Enforcement, Technical Review, Public Policy and
Communications on Air, Water and Waste/Community Environmental Protection

PO Box 39,  East Lansing, MI  48826-0039
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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