E-M:/ Sunday Smog Report...Monday is Smog Day also

["Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>]

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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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At 4 PM Sunday, the more notable smog in Michigan is
occurring in Southeastern Michigan.

Port Huron is showing the highest 1 hour average at 109 PPB
Eight hour average concentrations appear to be likely over 85
ppb by about 7-8 pm at Port Huron, New Haven, Warren, Oak Park
and possibly Detroit East 7 Mile.

Smog in Western Michigan is lower than expected because of winds with
a higher westerly component, although Cassopolis will probably
end the day with 8 hour average over 85 ppb ,  See:
http://www.in.gov/idem/air/amb/data/ozone/datasite/casso.html

For details on the rest of Michigan, see:

http://www.deq.state.mi.us/aqi/ozone.shtml

MDEQ Air Quality Content Follows:

OZONE ACTION! DAY DECLARATIONS

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action! Day Advisory REMAINS IN EFFECT during Sunday, June 30th
An Ozone Action! Day Advisory HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED for Monday, July 1st

WEST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action! Day Advisory REMAINS IN EFFECT during Sunday, June 30th
An Ozone Action! Day Advisory HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED for Monday, July 1st

Forecast Discussion

Ozone Action! Advisory Continues into Monday…

A review of the Saturday monitor concentrations shows a dramatic increase 
of regional ozone as compared to Friday’s results.  Ozone concentrations 
increased well into the "Moderate" range, just short of the “Unhealthy for 
Sensitive Groups” range.  Sunday promises to be a continuation of this 
trend resulting in elevated ozone concentrations Sunday and Monday.  As 
such, the Ozone Action! Day Advisory issued for Sunday will be extended 
into Monday!

High pressure, southeast of the forecast area, will maintain regional 
southwest winds promoting high temperatures (e.g. 90 degrees), high dew 
points (e.g. 70), and deteriorating air quality.  Fortunately, the high 
pressure center is positioned further west than originally projected so our 
winds will be more west-southwest rather than southwest.  This will, 
hopefully, spare the region from the full brunt of Chicago 
emissions.  While this should reduce the probability of very high 1-hour 
concentrations, it remains probable that the 8-hour average concentrations 
will climb into the “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups” range.

Extended forecast…

Computer models forecast the current hot weather pattern to persist through 
Tuesday.  The models have become more aggressive in pushing a cold front 
through the region during Wednesday.  If this projection is accurate, a 
fresh air mass will relieve this current high ozone episode on 
Wednesday.  Furthermore, this new air mass would provide extremely pleasant 
weather on Thursday for our holiday break.

To get a better handle on the critical wind trajectory and frontal 
progress, we will review the latest model results Monday morning and update 
this forecast at that time.

Forecast updated on Sunday, June 30th by Jim Haywood



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Alex J. Sagady & Associates  http://my.voyager.net/~ajs/sagady.pdf

Environmental Enforcement, Technical Review, Public Policy and
Communications on Air, Water and Waste/Community Environmental Protection

PO Box 39,  East Lansing, MI  48826-0039
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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