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E-M:/ Smog Day Predicted for Sunday in Western Michigan



MDEQ Air Quality Division predicts an "Ozone Action" smog day for
Western Michigan on Sunday.....  Details follow...

\\\\\\\\content below from MDEQ Air Quality Division, Modeling and Meteorology Unit\\\\\\

OZONE ACTION! DAY DECLARATIONS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

No Ozone Action! Day advisories anticipated thru Sunday, June 22nd

WEST MICHIGAN

No Ozone Action! Day advisory for Saturday, June 21st

An Ozone Action Advisory IS being issued for Sunday, June 22nd

FORECAST DISCUSSION

With a high pressure center over the Chicago area, Michigan's lower peninsula will enjoy mostly sunny skies and a northerly flow today, with temperatures topping out near 80 degrees. The flow of dry Canadian air will allow temperatures to be pleasantly cool tonight, dropping to around 50 degrees. The upper level low presently situated in Pennsylvania will continue its eastward progression, allowing for the high pressure center to drift to our southeast by late Sunday. When this happens, flow will become more southerly and the air quality will deteriorate. Due to the position of the ridge, flow in the lower peninsula of west Michigan will be from the southwest by Sunday, whereas winds in east Michigan should remain more westerly. Both areas will remain dry with plenty of sunshine, pushing temperatures in the mid 80's, with some areas reaching the upper 80's. The first week of summer will feel like it, with temperatures well into the 80's. And until a frontal passage sometime on Wednesday or Thursday, concerns for deteriorating air quality will be present.

CONCLUSION

Saturday

Ozone concentrations will be on the increase under the cap of high pressure. Due to unfavorable flow, however, most areas should still experience an AQI of good. Again, shoreline areas of Lake Michigan will be most prone to poorer air quality (an AQI of moderate) due to the presence of a lake breeze. Other areas of Michigan might see an AQI of moderate as well, but these occurrences should be minimal.

Sunday

With a flow much more favorable to the formation of ozone and warmer temperatures to boot, Sunday presents a good chance for the formation of ozone at elevated levels. An AQI of unhealthy for sensitive groups is likely for the lower peninsula's western half. Therefore, an Ozone Action! Day is being declared for participating west Michigan counties. The AQI in the eastern half, with less favorable flow and the lack of a lake breeze, should be predominantly moderate.

This forecast will be updated tomorrow to utilize the latest data in making a forecast for Monday. Beyond Monday, ozone levels have the potential of remaining elevated through mid-week, as flow will be from the southwest and temperatures warm. The main forecasting obstacle will be evaluating the chance for clouds and precipitation as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Should precipitation be ample, an otherwise poor air quality scenario, will be made good.

Forecast updated: Saturday, June 21st by Neal Conatser

Next anticipated update: Sunday, June 22nd by Neal Conatser

For issues related to forecasting contact: MDEQ, Modeling and Meteorology Unit
For technical issues contact: DEQ Webmaster

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