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E-M:/ Smog prediction for Monday in W and SE Michigan



"Ozone Day" smog prediction extends to Monday for both Western
and Southeastern Michigan.

At 12 noon Sunday, the most ozone polluted place in the state on the
1 hour average is Benzonia, MI near Frankfort in the NW part of the
state.....91 ppb one hour average.   Most of the western part of Michigan
is already in the 60-70 ppb range at 12 noon.   However, at this hour, the
highest 8 hour average in the state is 53 ppb at Tecumseh in SE Michigan.

All details and near real time ozone air pollution readings are at:

http://www.deq.state.mi.us/aqi/ozone.shtml

and regional information and EPA's near real time ozone map animation at

http://www.epa.gov/airnow/midwest.html

and

http://www.epa.gov/airnow

Ontario smog alerts at

http://www.airqualityontario.com/alerts/details.cfm?alertType=advisory


=====CONTENT BELOW FROM MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT
OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY, AIR QUALITY DIVISION,
MODELING AND METEOROLOGY SECTION-----======

OZONE ACTION! DAY DECLARATIONS

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action! Day advisory has been issued for Monday, June 23rd

WEST MICHIGAN

An Ozone Action Advisory is presently in effect for Sunday, June 22nd

An Ozone Action! Day advisory has been issued for Monday, June 23rd

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A high pressure center located in northern Indiana will continue drifting southeast, and will place all of Michigan under the influence of southerly flow by Monday. This shift will initially be felt on the western side of the state as soon as this afternoon. For today, expect high temperatures to top out in the low to mid 80's. While still relatively dry, the air will begin to have more of a muggy feel to it as we are cut off from the Canadian air enjoyed over the last several days. Dewpoints are projected to slowly rise and nighttime temperatures won't be as cool. Monday will bring much of the same weather as Sunday, but with the chance for more cloudiness and slightly higher temperatures. With warm air advection into the state, maximum temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80's. The first week of summer will feel like it, with temperatures well into the 80's. And until a frontal passage sometime on Wednesday or Thursday, concerns for deteriorating air quality will be present.

CONCLUSION

Sunday

With a flow much more favorable to the formation of ozone and warmer temperatures to boot, Sunday presents a good chance for the formation of ozone at elevated levels. An AQI of unhealthy for sensitive groups is likely for the lower peninsula's western half. Therefore, an Ozone Action! Day advisory has been declared for all participating west Michigan counties. The AQI in the eastern half, with less favorable flow and the lack of a lake breeze, should be predominantly moderate. There is a chance an isolated site or two will reach an AQI of unhealthy for sensitive groups. So if you are especially sensitive to ozone, please take all necessary precautions to ensure your health.

Monday

Much like Sunday, Monday will see continued deterioration in air quality. An Ozone Action! Day advisory has been issued for all participating Michigan counties, both on the west and east sides of the state. Widespread 8-hr ozone readings with an AQI of unhealthy for sensitive groups is likely. Please take all necessary precautions to limit outdoor exertion and exposure if you are particularly sensitive to ozone.

This forecast will be updated tomorrow to utilize the latest data in making a forecast for Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, ozone levels have the potential of remaining elevated through Wednesday, as flow will be from the southwest and temperatures warm. The main forecasting obstacle will be evaluating the chance for clouds and precipitation as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. Should precipitation be ample, an otherwise poor air quality scenario, will be made good.

Forecast updated: Sunday, June 22nd by Neal Conatser

Next update: Monday, June 23rd by Jim Haywood

For issues related to forecasting contact: MDEQ, Modeling and Meteorology Unit

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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