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E-M:/ Updated MDEQ smog forecast - now includes both West and SE Michigan for Tuesday



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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...OZONE ACTION REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY...JULY 31...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST MICHIGAN... 
ALLEGAN... BENZIE... BERRIEN... CASS... GRAND TRAVERSE... KENT... LAKE... LEELANAU... MANISTEE... MASON... MUSKEGON... NEWAYGO... OCEANA... OTTAWA... VAN BUREN... WEXFORD

...OZONE ACTION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY...AUGUST 1...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST MICHIGAN... 
ALLEGAN... BERRIEN... CASS... GRAND TRAVERSE... KALAMAZOO... KENT... LAKE... LEELANAU... MANISTEE... MASON... MUSKEGON... NEWAYGO... OCEANA... OTTAWA... ST. JOSEPH... VAN BUREN... WEXFORD 

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... 
LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON... MACOMB... MONROE... OAKLAND... ST. CLAIR... WASHTENAW... WAYNE

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Michigan Air Quality Forecast

The DEQ real-time program is being updated. Please refer to AIRNow's <http://cfpub.epa.gov/airnow/index.cfm?action=airnow.fcsummary&stateid=27>Michigan Air Quality Conditions webpage. Note: The update affects only real-time data, not the the tables, charts and graphs.

Monday, July 31st, 2006 through Tuesday, August 1st, 2006 

Ozone: 8-hr concentrations are forecasted to be mostly Moderate at the inland monitors. Concentrations in the western counties and Southeast Michigan are expected the exceed the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold. 

PM-2.5: 24-hr concentrations are forecasted to be High Good to Low Moderate. 

Forecast Discussion:
The heat continues to roll through the Midwest with no relief likely until midweek. Our air quality did get an unexpected shot of cleaner air as storms moved through the central and southern part of the state during Sunday. While these storms temporarily cleaned up local air, it did not clean out the rapidly deteriorating regional background levels. As such, with mostly clear skies, high humidity, and southwest surface winds, we can expect air quality across the southern and central portion of the state to start dropping off today. Thus, an OzoneAction advisory has been issued for much of the western portion of the state for Monday and will continue through Tuesday as air quality model guidance and weather conditions indicate that the western and some central portions of the state may be at high risk. 

Model guidance also predicts that some portions of southeast Michigan may be at risk of receiving ozone concentrations above the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold of 85 ppb. The fact that the highest 1-hour concentrations in the state during Sunday occurred downwind of Detroit convinces me that an OzoneAction advisory should also be issued for southeast Michigan for Tuesday. Surface winds in Southeast Michigan for Tuesday are projected to be southwest at the surface but westerly aloft. Granted, this is not ideal for very high ozone concentrations, but the increasing background concentrations and the southwest surface winds do make some USG readings probable. Note that this is the first OzoneAction advisory we have issued for southeast Michigan during the 2006 ozone season. Also, August 1st is the latest we have ever gone into an ozone season without issuing an advisory for that portion of the state. 

Extended Forecast:
Unfortunately, I am not expecting a solid break in the weather or in air quality levels until late Wednesday when a front, now currently stalled north of the forecast area, finally breaks loose and passes through the state. Thursday and Friday look to have much more seasonable weather and cleaner air. As this episode appears to be lasting into Wednesday, I intend to review the situation again Tuesday morning and revise this forecast at that time. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, July 31st, 2006
Next forecast update: Tuesday, August 1st, 2006 

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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Evidence Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Ave,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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