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E-M:/ Current Smog episode



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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For the second day in a row, Western Michigan has 
had the worst ozone polluted air quality in the 
continental United States.

According to imagery from http://www.airnow.gov
Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Holland all went Code Red
(unhealthy for everybody) earlier today.   Grand Rapids, Evans and 
Muskegan are still at Code Orange (unhealthy for sensitive 
groups) as of 7 PM EDT, still the worst polluted in the US at this hour.

http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.showmap&pollutant=OZONE

You can pull up a Michigan map and show it in time motion here
http://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.currentconditions&RegionID=4
select "ozone" and "Michigan" or "Lake Michigan"

In a space of about 3 days here, Michigan DEQ's petition to delist
Muskegon as a ozone non-attainment area is in the process of getting 
shredded.

SE Michigan dodge the ozone bullet today, but is predicted again
for Wednesday to have problems.

Michigan DEQ Air Quality Division ozone forecast content follows:

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...OZONE ACTION IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY...AUGUST 2...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST MICHIGAN... 
ALLEGAN... BERRIEN... CASS... KALAMAZOO... KENT... MUSKEGON... NEWAYGO... OCEANA... OTTAWA... ST. JOSEPH... VAN BUREN... 

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... 
LENAWEE... LIVINGSTON... MACOMB... MONROE... OAKLAND... ST. CLAIR... WASHTENAW... WAYNE

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Michigan Air Quality Forecast

The DEQ real-time program is being updated. Please refer to AIRNow's <http://cfpub.epa.gov/airnow/index.cfm?action=airnow.fcsummary&stateid=27>Michigan Air Quality Conditions webpage. Note: The update affects only real-time data, not the the tables, charts and graphs.

Tuesday, August 1st, 2006 through Friday, August 4th, 2006 

Ozone: 8-hr concentrations in the western counties and Southeast Michigan are expected to exceed the "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" (USG) threshold (85 ppb) during Tuesday and Wednesday. Some monitors along Lake Michigan may even exceed the "Unhealthy" threshold (105 ppb) during Tuesday. Values should return to Good by Thursday. 

PM-2.5: 24-hr concentrations are forecasted to be Moderate during midweek and are expected to drop to mostly Good by the end of the week. 

Forecast Discussion:
You do not need a meteorology degree to know that it is hot outside. The National Weather Service is extending its Heat Advisory through our air quality forecast area for Tuesday and is encouraging the public to remain inside cooled facilities. On the air quality side, ozone concentrations rose rapidly on the west side Monday with the highest 1-hour concentration (128 ppb) and highest 8-hour concentration (101 ppb) occurring at our Muskegon site. Fortunately, the east side of the state was spared concentrations over the USG threshold but was solidly Moderate. Unfortunately, Tuesday will be a continuation of Monday and likely a little worse. Air quality on this side of Lake Michigan has become very stagnant and a continuation of southwest winds at all levels of the atmosphere will continue to pump more pollutants into our air. 

Air quality model guidance predicts that West Michigan will again be hit hard Tuesday afternoon and evening. Clear skies, high humidity, southwest winds and an already dirty air make that forecast pretty easy. The guidance even indicates that some monitors right along the Lake shore may even exceed the "Unhealthy" threshold of 105 ppb over an 8-hour period. Southeast Michigan continues to be more difficult to forecast. The models keep the Detroit downwind areas right at the Moderate/USG threshold. However, I issued a Southeast Michigan OzoneAction advisory for Tuesday because the conditions are certainly ripe for more significant ozone development. The Moderate concentrations experienced Monday in Southeast Michigan will not need much more encouragement to pop over the USG threshold in the most vulnerable places during Tuesday. 

A cold front will finally start dropping down from the northwest during the day Wednesday. It will begin providing cloud cover from northwest to southeast. As such, the northern tier counties along Lake Michigan will probably see relief from higher ozone concentrations during Wednesday. Even though the mid and lower tier counties will also likely see increasing cloud cover and slightly lower temperatures, the air will stay highly polluted until the front passes through Wednesday night or early Thursday. Thus, OzoneAction continues for the mid and lower tier counties of West Michigan through Wednesday. 

Wednesday remains questionable for Southeast Michigan. But with the increasing Moderate values seen Monday combined with clear skies, high humidity, and southwest winds, I simply cannot justify not continuing OzoneAction in the southeast counties, as well. Thus OzoneAction also continues for Southeast Michigan although stronger winds may help dilute concentrations in some less vulnerable areas. 

Extended Forecast:
When the cold front finally passes through the state Wednesday night or Thursday morning, we will finally see a turnover in air mass and improvement in air quality. Ozone values should drop back into the Good category on Thursday and PM-2.5 should hover around the Good/Low Moderate threshold. Thus Wednesday should effectively mark the end of this particular poor air quality episode. We will review the latest guidance on Friday to provide a weekend forecast, because the long range forecast currently has the weekend warming back up a bit. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, August 1st, 2006
Next forecast update: Friday, August 4th, 2006



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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Evidence Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Ave,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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