[Date Prev][Date Next][Date Index]

Re: E-M:/ Disturbing weather, peak oil, and good books



-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enviro-Mich message from Doug Welker <dwelker@up.net>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is interesting to play with Albert Bates' numbers. 70 miles per decade = 7 miles per year = 36,960 feet year = 101 feet per day = 4.2 feet per hour. Most mobile creatures could move that fast, but, frankly, may not see the need to until it may be too late. This might present a real problem for plants whose seeds are not likely to be carried by birds or other animals. I suspect, though, that most low-mobility species may move by leapfrogging via human transportation, logs floating down rivers, etc. A new field of ecologic protection may develop, one that involves intentional human transport of species, largely by leapfrogging them to sites where they may spread out, northward or to higher elevations. In fact, large parts of ecosystems will need to be moved, and often to sites of similar soils and moisture levels. For many, and perhaps most, species, temperature is NOT the primary controlling factor in their distribution. It's issues like soils, moisture, competition, and predator/prey relationships.

Whether species can move northward or upward fast enough may not even be the biggest temperature-related issue in species extinction. As the earth's climate warms, it will become more uniform from the equator to the poles. The poles will warm faster than equatorial regions, so that the southern boundary of a species' tolerance will move more slowly northward than the northern boundary. The net result for most species may be an increase in their potential range. Perhaps the more important related question, then, is whether the southern limit of a species' range will move northward faster than that species can move northward. If so, its range may shrink.

Equally or more important may be that the range of cold-adapted species, both in northern regions and on mountains, will shrink. When this happens, plants and animals may have nowhere to go.

I don't mean to minimize the issues association with the northward movement of climatic belts in the future. That movement, and increased urbanization, will greatly impact many species in a negative way. I do, though, think that mobility rates and human barriers will not be as important as many other factors in the survival of species due to global warming.

-doug welker-



But some questions arise.
At 01:37 PM 1/5/2007, Craig_Riley@URSCorp.com wrote:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enviro-Mich message from Craig_Riley@URSCorp.com
-------------------------------------------------------------------------


With what feels like the most uncomfortable 50deg weather I have ever felt in my life, I am in the midst of reading a book that is maybe all too in sync with its forecast. I recommend everyone check out the book Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook by Albert K. Bates. My reading of the book comes upon a Christmas day, holiday, New Years etc where SE Michigan found itself under a (un)comfortable blanket of 50deg and fog, rain, and humidity. In fact, gee there is the same weather today through the weekend. I have never felt so much uneasiness, discomfort, and anxiety at the warmth of 50deg weather.

I'm sure there are many many others on this list feeling the same way...so
I thought I would at least share a good book to read (by candlelight)...

I wonder what wunderground has to say about this weather...

Craig

"In the latter half of the 20th century, animal, insect, and plant
populations migrated from the equator toward the poles at an average rate
of about four miles per decade.  Lately, global warming has been leaving
them in the dust.  From 1970 to 2000, the regions in which a given average
temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of
about 35 miles per decade.  That pace is expected to step up to 70 miles
per decade in the years to come.  This speed, and barriers like urban
sprawl, highways, deforestation, and industrial agriculture, spell
extinction for less mobile species and, ultimately, for any ecosystems that
depended on them."
-Albert Bates (from The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook)


============================================================== ENVIRO-MICH: Internet List and Forum for Michigan Environmental and Conservation Issues and Michigan-based Citizen Action. Archives at http://www.great-lakes.net/lists/enviro-mich/

Postings to:  enviro-mich@great-lakes.net      For info, send email to
majordomo@great-lakes.net  with a one-line message body of  "info enviro-mich"
==============================================================




-- No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.1.410 / Virus Database: 268.16.6/617 - Release Date: 1/5/2007

Doug Welker 26344 Tauriainen Road Pelkie MI 49958 dwelker@up.net (906) 338-2680

Never underestimate the power of human greed.


-- No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.1.410 / Virus Database: 268.16.6/617 - Release Date: 1/5/2007



==============================================================
ENVIRO-MICH:  Internet List and Forum for Michigan Environmental
and Conservation Issues and Michigan-based Citizen Action.   Archives at
http://www.great-lakes.net/lists/enviro-mich/

Postings to:  enviro-mich@great-lakes.net      For info, send email to
majordomo@great-lakes.net  with a one-line message body of  "info enviro-mich"
==============================================================