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E-M:/ Smog alerts up in Michigan



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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Grand Rapids - -Air Quality Forecast:

Wednesday, May 30
     Ozone - Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - ORANGE  
     Particle Pollution(2.5 microns) - Moderate - YELLOW  

Thursday, May 31
     Ozone - Moderate - YELLOW  
     Particle Pollution(2.5 microns) - Moderate - YELLOW  

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Southeastern Michigan -  Air Quality Forecast


Wednesday, May 30
     Particle Pollution(2.5 microns) - Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - ORANGE  
     Ozone - Moderate - YELLOW  

Thursday, May 31
     Particle Pollution(2.5 microns) - Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - ORANGE  
     Ozone - Moderate - YELLOW  
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National and regional air quality maps are available at: www.epa.gov/airnow

For additional information concerning the air quality forecast,  
and to view current Michigan air quality maps, data & information,  go to   http://www.deqmiair.org/

This information was issued by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality on Wednesday, May 30.

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MDEQ Forecast content from Jim Haywood - MDEQ air pollution meteorologist follows:

Forecast Summary: Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 through Thursday, May 31st, 2007 

Ozone: Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly High Moderate to USG Wednesday then Good to Low Moderate late in the week. The most likely areas of scattered USG during Wednesday are along the lake shore areas and the U.P. north of Lake Michigan. 

PM-2.5: 24-hr concentrations are expected to be High Moderate to USG throughout the remainder of the week. Probable USG locations are the downwind areas from Chicago and Detroit. 

Forecast Discussion: 

Summer conditions will continue through the work week. Despite hot and hazy weather on Tuesday, we did not exceed the Unhealthy for Sensitive (USG) thresholds for either ozone or PM-2.5. The highest ozone recorded in the state Tuesday was 81 ppb at Harbor Beach. This was not surprising as this area was directly downwind of the Detroit plume. Seney and Holland were a close second at 79 ppb as the Chicago plume traveled up the lake. 

Grand Rapids recorded the highest 24-hour PM-2.5 concentration on Tuesday with concentration of 33.9 ug/m3. This number may be a bit high since some maintenance was being performed at that monitor during the day. Kalamazoo recorded the second highest concentration with 26.1 ug/m3. Regional nitrates and sulfates from northern Illinois and Indiana are the most likely culprits. 

There is some concern on how the ozone numbers will run Wednesday afternoon. Winds are generally southerly meaning the thick Chicago plume may impact the Wisconsin shoreline more than the West Michigan shoreline. The air quality models do not give us a complete pass, however, and Holland/Muskegon may experience some scattered USG concentrations. The Seney area may also see poor ozone numbers (along with PM-2.5) as the worst of the plume will ride up the length of the lake. The wild card in this ozone forecast is scattered cloudiness possible due to local convective activity. Rain showers are possible although unlikely because a dry layer in the mid-atmosphere may cap any significant precipitation growth. Any cloud cover, however, should retard runaway ozone values and will, hopefully, keep concentrations below the USG threshold. Thursday should experience a reduced threat in ozone formation as more cloud cover advances from the west and temperatures cool slightly. 

PM-2.5 will be the prominent air pollutant for the remainder of the week. Seney is already running in the USG range, as of Wednesday morning, and several other monitors are not far behind. Although we do not have an action program for fine particulate, I will likely post USG forecasts on EPA's AIRNOW web page for fine particulate at several of the more vulnerable sites for today and tomorrow. 

Extended Forecast: 

A slowing approaching front will not pass until through the region until later in the weekend. Until then, fine particulate values will likely stay in the High Moderate to USG range statewide. Ozone will likely not be an issue past Wednesday due to increased cloudiness and probability of precipitation. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 

Next forecast update: Thursday, May 31st, 2007 



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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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