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E-M:/ Drought and fire danger - lower Michigan

Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>

 From Weather Underground  http://www.wunderground.com

Public Information Statement

1237 PM EDT Tue Jul 31 2007

...Drought information statement for southwest lower Michigan...

.Synopsis...Drought conditions have persisted across portions of
southwest and west central lower Michigan. Numerous locations in
this region have observed less than 2.00 inches of rainfall for the
entire month of July...with deficits increasing over the course of
the Summer months. Isolated precipitation is possible later this
week...however recent forecast models have trended drier. Beyond
this week the chance for precipitation increases. 

.Local area affected...
Status as of July 24th per U.S. Drought monitor...

Drought category 0...from Western Lake County southeast through
Clinton County and all points west and southwest were in at least a
d0 status. 

Drought category 0 is an abnormally dry drought. Generally short-term
drying and vegetation growth will be slowed. Fire risk is above

Drought category 1...from southern Ottawa County east through
southern Kent and Ionia counties...stretching southeast through
Jackson counties and all points southwest of this line. 

Drought category 1 is a moderate drought. Damage to vegetation and a
high fire risk. Streams...reservoirs and Wells are low. 

.Climate summary...
Precipitation deficits since early this month across much of
southwest and west central lower Michigan have ranged from one half
inch below normal...to a little over two and a half inches below
normal. The highest concentration of deficits was located across
southern Ottawa and western Kent counties...extending south through
Allegan...Van Buren and Kalamazoo counties.

The following precipitation data is from the Michigan State
University cooperative agricultural weather network through July
29th 2007. 

                      Precipitation totals since

07/23/2007     07/16/2007       07/02/2007      04/01/07
last week    last 2 weeks    last 4 weeks     since Apr.1

Station   actual     actual  dev.     Actual dev.     Actual dev.
                             Norm.           Norm.           Norm.
Allegan    0.96      1.70    0.22     2.26   -0.58    11.40  -1.49
Allendale  0.36      0.70   -0.78     1.81   -1.03     8.68  -4.21
Fennville  0.89      1.19   -0.29     1.34   -1.50     8.35  -4.54
grandjunc  0.60      1.42   -0.06     1.61   -1.23     9.66  -3.23
grapids    0.22      0.43   -1.05     1.28   -1.56    10.11  -2.78
gulllake   0.07      0.86   -0.62     1.17   -1.67     8.91  -3.98
Holland    0.60      0.84   -0.64     1.15   -1.69     8.51  -4.38
hudsnvlle  0.29      0.38   -1.10     0.63   -2.21     7.66  -5.23
kentcity   0.96      1.70    0.22     2.26   -0.58     9.77  -3.12
Nunica     1.98      2.21    0.73     4.14    1.30    11.65  -1.24
Sparta     0.26      0.26   -1.22     1.23   -1.61     8.00  -4.89
Watervliet 0.96      1.70    0.22     2.26   -0.58     9.77  -3.12
westolive  1.14      1.25   -0.23     1.64   -1.20     9.75  -3.14
Baldwin    0.05      0.07   -1.20     3.20    0.90    11.04  -0.11
Fremont    0.00      0.02   -1.25     2.90    0.60    10.63  -0.52
Hart       0.01      0.03   -1.24     2.07   -0.23     8.10  -3.05
Ludington  0.10      0.10   -1.17     3.49    1.19    12.37   1.22
Muskegon   0.53      0.57   -0.70     1.65   -0.65     8.67  -2.48

.River and streamflow conditions...
Area streams are running below normal. The following status of
streams was as of early Tuesday morning. 

Currentpercent of
site         stagenormal
Bear Creek near Muskegon       10.16 ft.46
Macatawa river near Zeeland     1.90 ft.40
rabbit river near hopkins2.16 ft.54
Black River near bangor2.16 ft. 62
Portage creek at kalamazoo1.99 ft.59
Augusta creek near augusta0.77 ft.53
Kalamazoo river at battle creek2.85 ft.67
Grand River at grand rapids2.99 ft.67
Grand River at lansing2.47 ft.61

As of Sunday July 29th the 7-day average streamflow compared to
historical streamflow indicated a below normal status from Ottawa
County east through Clinton counties and points south of this line. 

.Fire danger impacts...
Central lower Michigan is experiencing fire danger ranging from
moderate to high. 

Southern Lower Michigan is experiencing fire danger ranging from
high to extreme. 

Fire danger is typically not a significant problem after green up in
the Spring...however this Summer is atypical due to the lack of
widespread significant rain the past couple of months. The fire
danger is expected to worsen through the week with the hot and dry
conditions forecasted...coupled with the low probability for
appreciable rainfall through Saturday. 

.Precipitation/temperature outlook...
The six to ten day outlook...August 5th through 9th...is calling for
above normal temperatures to continue across southwest and west
central lower Michigan...and precipitation is expected to be above

The eight to fourteen day outlook...August 7th through 13th...is
calling for above normal temperatures to continue across southwest
and west central lower Michigan...with near normal precipitation
through this period. 

.Related web sites...
All links should be entered in lower case. 

Climate prediction center...

Midwestern regional climate center...

Stream flow and ground water...http://groundwaterwatch.USGS.Gov/

State usda crop progress reports...http://www.Nass.Usda.Gov/mi

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA/S
National Weather Service and the National climatic data
center...United States department of agriculture...state and
regional climate centers and the National drought mitigation center. 

Information for this statement has been gathered from the National
Weather Service and federal aviation administration observation
sites...state cooperative extension services and the United
States department of agriculture...coprs of engineers and the United
States geological survey.

Questions or comments...
if you have questions or comments about this drought 
information statement please contact...

David beachler
616-949-0643 ext. 352
drought Focal Point
NWS - Grand Rapids Michigan

Mark Walton
616-949-0643 ext. 493
service hydrologist
NWS - Grand Rapids Michigan

.Next issuance...
This product will be updated Thursday August 2nd. 

==========================================Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
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(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com

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