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E-M:/ Ozone warning extended to Thursday



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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Yesterday, the most heavily ozone contaminated air in Michigan occurred
at New Haven, Warren and Detroit (East 7 mile site), with New Haven
having 5 continuous hours at or near 100 ppb ozone....   

Ozone season readings in 2007 plus what will probably occur in the next 
few days should really rule out MDEQ's proposed redesignation of 
SE Michigan to ozone nonattainment....i.e. illustrate that maintenance of 
the standards cannot be demonstrated.

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MDEQ Extended Ozone alert to Thursday....conditions for ozone formation 
may persist to the weekend.

<http://www.deqmiair.org/>Air Quality Index  >  Forecast Discussion 
FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, August 1st, 2007 through Thursday, August 2nd, 2007 

OZONE: 8-hour concentrations are expected to be USG at many Lower Peninsula monitors and Moderate at the remaining state monitors. Some isolated Unhealthy concentrations, especially along the western shoreline counties and north of Detroit, may be possible. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate through Thursday. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

Three monitors in Southeast Michigan (Warren, New Haven, and East 7-Mile) exceeded the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold during Tuesday. The remainder of the state recorded concentrations in the Good and Moderate categories. This small pocket of high readings was unexpected as meteorological conditions were nearly identical to Monday when the entire state remained well in the Good range. 

This area of buildup is particularly worrisome for Wednesday and Thursday as conditions will be more prone to ozone development. Favorable winds aloft held ozone development completely in check during Monday plus the majority of the state during Tuesday except for that small area immediately north of downtown Detroit. As high pressure drifts eastward during Wednesday, however, weak surface winds will shift around to the west-southwest now making West Michigan very vulnerable to high ozone development. As a result, Ozone Action advisories have been issued for Wednesday for both West Michigan and Southeast Michigan. 

Conditions will not likely improve much during Thursday although a weak front will approach from the northwest. Thus, I will continue the Ozone Action advisory for West Michigan and Southeast Michigan into Thursday. Additionally, the ozone models have also identified the Lansing and Flint areas as being very susceptible to higher the ozone concentrations that will have carried inland on the west-southwest winds during Thursday. As such, I am expanding the Ozone Action advisory to cover those areas, as well. 

The meteorological models have identified a weak front to approach from the northwest later on Thursday. Unfortunately, there is little moisture or temperature variation associated with this front. As best, there may be some increased cloudiness and maybe some spotty showers in the northwest counties, but little in the way of significant ozone prevention. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: 

These conditions will likely persist into the weekend. Showers may move through the state during Sunday to provide some slight relief but no real change in air mass can be seen in the foreseeable forecast. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, August 1st, 2007 

Next forecast update: Thursday, August 2nd, 2007 

<http://www.deqmiair.org/assets/MIAIR-forecast-protocol.pdf>Forecast Protocol 





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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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