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E-M:/ More bad air today - West, East and Central Michigan



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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More bad air today - West, East and Central  in Southern Lower Michigan

Action Day declaration by MDEQ for most of Southern Lower Peninsula

Details at:

www.deqmiair.org

=====forecast content from MDEQ air pollution meteorologist follows:

<http://www.deqmiair.org/>Air Quality Index  >  Forecast Discussion 
FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, August 2nd, 2007 through Friday, August 3rd, 2007 

OZONE: 8-hour concentrations are expected to be USG at many Lower Peninsula monitors on Thursday and Moderate at the remaining state monitors. Some isolated Unhealthy concentrations, especially along the western shoreline counties and north of Detroit, may be possible. Levels Friday will improve into the Good to Moderate range. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate with levels improving on Friday. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

For a second day in a row Southeast Michigan had monitors that exceeded the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold. This was due to high background in place; hot temperatures; plenty of sunshine and weak surface winds. Southwest winds will be in place most of Thursday with the surface high pressure still off to our east and the cold front off to our northwest. Clouds could increase for a while as the front approaches; however Thursday will likely be another day with Ozone levels in the USG range across parts of the state. Hourly Ozone levels were already increasing into the Moderate range Thursday morning and much of Southern Lower Michigan can expect Ozone levels to be the same or slightly higher than levels experienced yesterday. PM2.5 numbers will remain Moderate. 

Forecast models are consistent with the fact that the frontal passage late Thursday/early Friday will not bring much precipitation with it; however, winds at upper levels look stronger and more from the northwest than what was being forecasted the past few days. The upper level winds will help push the cold front further south and out of our region with surface high pressure moving in behind it. This will be good for air quality since more of an airmass change will occur and cleaner air will move in from the west/northwest. Ozone levels on Friday will improve with the surface and upper level winds from the northwest. Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s; however, 8-hr Ozone levels higher than the Moderate range are not expected. PM2.5 levels Friday could linger into the Moderate range across Southern Lower Michigan with Good levels further north. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: 

The weekend does not look as conducive for significant pollution development as it did earlier in the week. Plenty of sunshine will be seen Saturday as the surface high pressure remains overhead. More of a southwest wind flow could start Sunday ahead of the next weather system; however, chances for precipitation may come into play late in the weekend. The forecast models will be reviewed again tomorrow to take a look at the air pollution levels through early next week. 

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Thursday, August 2nd, 2007 

Next forecast update: Friday, August 3rd, 2007 




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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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