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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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More bad air today - West, East and Central in Southern Lower Michigan
Action Day declaration by MDEQ for most of Southern Lower Peninsula
Details at:
www.deqmiair.org
=====forecast content from MDEQ air pollution meteorologist follows:
<http://www.deqmiair.org/>Air Quality Index > Forecast Discussion
FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, August 2nd, 2007 through Friday, August 3rd,
2007
OZONE: 8-hour concentrations are expected to be USG at many Lower
Peninsula monitors on Thursday and Moderate at the remaining state
monitors. Some isolated Unhealthy concentrations, especially along the
western shoreline counties and north of Detroit, may be possible. Levels
Friday will improve into the Good to Moderate range.
PM-2.5: 24-hour concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate with
levels improving on Friday.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
For a second day in a row Southeast Michigan had monitors that exceeded
the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) threshold. This was due to high
background in place; hot temperatures; plenty of sunshine and weak surface
winds. Southwest winds will be in place most of Thursday with the surface
high pressure still off to our east and the cold front off to our
northwest. Clouds could increase for a while as the front approaches;
however Thursday will likely be another day with Ozone levels in the USG
range across parts of the state. Hourly Ozone levels were already
increasing into the Moderate range Thursday morning and much of Southern
Lower Michigan can expect Ozone levels to be the same or slightly higher
than levels experienced yesterday. PM2.5 numbers will remain Moderate.
Forecast models are consistent with the fact that the frontal passage late
Thursday/early Friday will not bring much precipitation with it; however,
winds at upper levels look stronger and more from the northwest than what
was being forecasted the past few days. The upper level winds will help
push the cold front further south and out of our region with surface high
pressure moving in behind it. This will be good for air quality since more
of an airmass change will occur and cleaner air will move in from the
west/northwest. Ozone levels on Friday will improve with the surface and
upper level winds from the northwest. Temperatures will still be in the
upper 80s; however, 8-hr Ozone levels higher than the Moderate range are
not expected. PM2.5 levels Friday could linger into the Moderate range
across Southern Lower Michigan with Good levels further north.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
The weekend does not look as conducive for significant pollution
development as it did earlier in the week. Plenty of sunshine will be seen
Saturday as the surface high pressure remains overhead. More of a
southwest wind flow could start Sunday ahead of the next weather system;
however, chances for precipitation may come into play late in the weekend.
The forecast models will be reviewed again tomorrow to take a look at the
air pollution levels through early next week.
Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Thursday, August 2nd, 2007
Next forecast update: Friday, August 3rd, 2007
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Alex J. Sagady & Associates http://www.sagady.com
Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy,
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at: http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf
657 Spartan Avenue, East Lansing, MI 48823
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
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