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E-M:/ West Michigan Smog Day Wednesday




A(n) Action Day has been declared for Wednesday, September 5.

[SEE MDEQ AIR POLLUTION METEOROLOGIST OZONE FORECAST BELOW FIRST MESSAGE]

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Make clean air choices.  Defer using gas-powered engines.  Walk, bike, carpool or use mass transit if possible.  Link errands into one trip.  Conserve energy.

Air Quality Forecast:

Tuesday, September 4
     Ozone - Moderate - YELLOW 

Wednesday, September 5
     Ozone - Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups - ORANGE 

Thursday, September 6
     Ozone - Moderate - YELLOW 

Friday, September 7
     Ozone - Good - GREEN 

Saturday, September 8
     Ozone - Good - GREEN 

Sunday, September 9
     Ozone - Good - GREEN 

National and regional air quality maps are available at: www.epa.gov/airnow

For additional information concerning the air quality forecast, 
and to view current Michigan air quality maps, data & information, select the MIair icon at: www.michigan.gov/deqair

This information was issued by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality on Tuesday, September 4.

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=========================  MDEQ FORECAST CONTENT FOLLOWS

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, September 4th, 2007 through Monday, September 10th, 2007

OZONE: 8-hour concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate to USG through Wednesday then Moderate to Good throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour concentrations are also expected to be Mostly Moderate through the week then Good later in the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast is a first for me as I have never before issued an Ozone Action Advisory during the month of September. Nonetheless, conditions are setting up to provide one last day of high ozone for several West Michigan counties. A stationary front over the region Tuesday will move north as a warm front during Wednesday. This will put the state into a south to southwest wind pattern under predominantly sunny skies for the majority of Wednesday. Were this July, most of the state might receive elevated ozone advisories. However, with the shorter days, I believe that only the West side of the state is threatened by the Chicago transport over Lake Michigan. As such, I issued an Ozone Action advisory for the counties covering the general area of Holland up through Ludington.

To be honest, I had nearly put away the ozone portion of my forecasting duties and started focusing solely on fine particulate. An email last Friday from Terri DeBoer of Grand Rapid's WOOD-TV staff enquiring about the possibility of high ozone on Wednesday had me checking the long range computer models. It is nice to see the broadcast meteorologists take an interest in our air quality program...

The elevated ozone threat should diminish Thursday with the approach of a cold front. Although we will still be in the warm air sector of this system, cloud cover and precipitation will retard any elevated ozone. Fine particulates will continue to run in the Moderate range for the entirety of the work week, though, as clouds and precipitation will not reduce that threat.

The approaching cold front is currently projected to pass through the state during Saturday. The air mass following the passage of that front should flush out any elevated pollutants and return the region to the Good category for all pollutants.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Some real fall weather is in the forecast for early next week as cool, clean Canadian air filters south behind the front. By Monday, temperatures will barely make it into the 70's and air quality should be Good for all pollutants.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, September 4th, 2007

Next forecast update: Monday, September 10th, 2007




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Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy,
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