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RE: E-M:/ When it Rains, It Pours



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Enviro-Mich message from "Abby Rubley" <arubley@environmentmichigan.org>
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The full report is available at:
http://www.environmentmichigan.org/reports

How We Obtained Our Results:
In this report, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation
across the contiguous United States from 1948 through 2006. We analyze daily
precipitation records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center for
more than 3,000 weather stations, identifying storms with extreme 24-hour
precipitation totals. We define extreme precipitation relative to the local
climate, selecting storms with an average recurrence interval of 1 year or
more. In practical terms, this means that we selected the 59 largest storms
in terms of total precipitation at each weather station during the 59-year
period of analysis, and labeled these "extreme." We then examined trends in
the frequency of these storms over time. For a more detailed explanation,
see the "Methodology" section of the report on page 32.

Please let me know if you have any further questions.

Abby Rubley
Field Director
Environment Michigan
 
103 E. Liberty St.   Ste. 202
Ann Arbor, MI  48104
(734) 662-9797 office
(517) 420-6777 cell
(734) 662-8393 fax
arubley@environmentmichigan.org
 
 
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-enviro-mich@great-lakes.net
[mailto:owner-enviro-mich@great-lakes.net] On Behalf Of Alexander J. Sagady
Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 2:27 PM
To: Abby Rubley; enviro-mich@great-lakes.net
Subject: Re: E-M:/ When it Rains, It Pours

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Enviro-Mich message from "Alexander J. Sagady" <ajs@sagady.com>
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Can you please tell us what definition of extreme precipitation
your shop used in developing your report, for both snow and 
rain?

Do you have this report up at a web URL for all to see?



At 10:36 AM 12/04/2007, Abby Rubley wrote:
>For Immediate Release:
Contact:
>December 4, 2007
Abby Rubley, 734-662-9797
> 
>New Report: Extreme Downpours Up 18 Percent in Michigan
>U.S. Senate Urged to Strengthen Key Global Warming Legislation
> 
>Grand Rapids, Michigan-Scientists have said for years that global warming
was "loading the dice" when it comes to increasing the frequency of severe
storms, and a new Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center report makes
it clear that Michigan is already experiencing extreme downpours much more
frequently.  Specifically, the new report found that storms with heavy
rainfall are now 18 percent more frequent in Michigan than they were 60
years ago.
> 
>"At the rate we're going, what was once the storm of the decade will soon
seem like just another downpour," said Abby Rubley, Field Director for
Environment Michigan.
> 
> The new Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center report, When it
Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme
Precipitation in the United States, examines trends in the frequency of
large rain and snow events across the continental United States from 1948 to
2006.  Using data from 3,000 weather stations and a methodology originally
developed by scientists at the National Climatic Data Center and the
Illinois State Water Survey, the report identifies storms with the greatest
24-hour precipitation totals at each weather station, and analyzes when
those storms occurred.
> 
>Nationally, the report shows that storms with extreme precipitation have
increased in frequency by 24 percent across the continental United States
since 1948.  At the state level, 40 states show a significant trend toward
more frequent storms with extreme precipitation, while only one state
(Oregon) shows a significant decline.  
> 
>Key findings for the East/North Central Region and Michigan include: 
>    * Storms with extreme precipitation increased in frequency by 22
percent in East/North Central Region from 1948 to 2006. 
>    * Michigan experienced an 18 percent increase in extreme rainstorms
during the period studied.  
>    * In addition, Grand Rapids shows a significant increase in the
frequency of large storms with heavy precipitation, roughly estimated to be
a 46 percent increase over the nearly 60-year period.  
> 
>These findings are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming.
Scientists expect some parts of the United States to receive more
precipitation as a result of global warming, while other parts receive less.
But regardless of the trend in total precipitation, scientists predict that
the rain and snow that does fall will be more likely to come in big
downpours and heavy snowstorms.  
> 
>Rubley was careful to note that an increase in the frequency of extreme
rainstorms does not mean more water will be available.  Scientists expect
that, as global warming intensifies, longer periods of relative dryness will
mark the periods between extreme rainstorms, increasing the risk of drought.
For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts
that, under a scenario of intense warming, the percent of land enduring
severe drought globally could be 30 times greater by the end of the century
than it is today.
> 
>"How serious this problem gets is largely within our control - but only if
our country acts boldly to reduce the pollution that fuels global warming,"
said Abby Rubley with Environment Michigan.
> 
>According to the most recent science, the United States must reduce its
total global warming emissions by at least 15 percent by 2020 and by at
least 80 percent by 2050 in order to prevent the worst effects of global
warming.  
> 
>"Steep reductions in global warming pollution are challenging but
achievable," noted Rubley, "and we already have the energy efficiency and
renewable energy technologies we need to get started."
> 
>Tomorrow, the U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works (EPW) Committee is
expected to vote on amendments to the "Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act
of 2007" (S. 2191), a global warming bill introduced by Senators Lieberman
(I-CT) and Warner (R-VA).  While recognizing the important efforts of the
bill's supporters on this critical issue, [Environment State] said that the
legislation must be significantly strengthened to address the challenge of
global warming.  Specifically, the bill's current pollution reduction
targets fall short of what the science says is necessary to avoid the worst
effects of global warming, and the bill gives away far too many subsidies to
dirty and dangerous energy sources.
> 
>"In addition to calling for a strengthening of the "Lieberman-Warner
Climate Security Act of 2007", Senators Levin and Stabenow should cosponsor
the Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act - the only legislation in
Congress that would reduce pollution fast enough to protect future
generations from the worst effects of global warming," concluded Rubley.
> 
>###
> 
>Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center is a statewide, citizen-based
environmental advocacy organization.
> 

==========================================
Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
==========================================  


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