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RE: E-M:/ When it Rains, It Pours



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alexander J. Sagady" <ajs@sagady.com>
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My reading of the report is that it depends only on 24 hour available precipitation 
data for the period 1948 to 2006.   While the report does get to the extremes
in precipitation as far as 24 hour's worth of precipitation, what the report does
not do is distinguish between, for example, an all-day rain event producing 
an extreme amount of precipitation, vs. a spectacular downpour from a 
slow moving 2 hour thunderstorm  vs.  a 24 hour extreme Great Lakes
effect snow storm.

At 02:35 PM 12/04/2007, you wrote:
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>Enviro-Mich message from "Abby Rubley" <arubley@environmentmichigan.org>
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>
>The full report is available at:
>http://www.environmentmichigan.org/reports
>
>How We Obtained Our Results:
>In this report, we examine trends in the frequency of extreme precipitation
>across the contiguous United States from 1948 through 2006. We analyze daily
>precipitation records obtained from the National Climatic Data Center for
>more than 3,000 weather stations, identifying storms with extreme 24-hour
>precipitation totals. We define extreme precipitation relative to the local
>climate, selecting storms with an average recurrence interval of 1 year or
>more. In practical terms, this means that we selected the 59 largest storms
>in terms of total precipitation at each weather station during the 59-year
>period of analysis, and labeled these "extreme." We then examined trends in
>the frequency of these storms over time. For a more detailed explanation,
>see the "Methodology" section of the report on page 32.
>
>Please let me know if you have any further questions.
>
>Abby Rubley
>Field Director
>Environment Michigan
> 
>103 E. Liberty St.   Ste. 202
>Ann Arbor, MI  48104
>(734) 662-9797 office
>(517) 420-6777 cell
>(734) 662-8393 fax
>arubley@environmentmichigan.org
> 
> 
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-enviro-mich@great-lakes.net
>[mailto:owner-enviro-mich@great-lakes.net] On Behalf Of Alexander J. Sagady
>Sent: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 2:27 PM
>To: Abby Rubley; enviro-mich@great-lakes.net
>Subject: Re: E-M:/ When it Rains, It Pours
>
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>Enviro-Mich message from "Alexander J. Sagady" <ajs@sagady.com>
>-------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Can you please tell us what definition of extreme precipitation
>your shop used in developing your report, for both snow and 
>rain?
>
>Do you have this report up at a web URL for all to see?
>
>
>
>At 10:36 AM 12/04/2007, Abby Rubley wrote:
>>For Immediate Release:
>Contact:
>>December 4, 2007
>Abby Rubley, 734-662-9797
>> 
>>New Report: Extreme Downpours Up 18 Percent in Michigan
>>U.S. Senate Urged to Strengthen Key Global Warming Legislation
>> 
>>Grand Rapids, Michigan-Scientists have said for years that global warming
>was "loading the dice" when it comes to increasing the frequency of severe
>storms, and a new Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center report makes
>it clear that Michigan is already experiencing extreme downpours much more
>frequently.  Specifically, the new report found that storms with heavy
>rainfall are now 18 percent more frequent in Michigan than they were 60
>years ago.
>> 
>>"At the rate we're going, what was once the storm of the decade will soon
>seem like just another downpour," said Abby Rubley, Field Director for
>Environment Michigan.
>> 
>> The new Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center report, When it
>Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme
>Precipitation in the United States, examines trends in the frequency of
>large rain and snow events across the continental United States from 1948 to
>2006.  Using data from 3,000 weather stations and a methodology originally
>developed by scientists at the National Climatic Data Center and the
>Illinois State Water Survey, the report identifies storms with the greatest
>24-hour precipitation totals at each weather station, and analyzes when
>those storms occurred.
>> 
>>Nationally, the report shows that storms with extreme precipitation have
>increased in frequency by 24 percent across the continental United States
>since 1948.  At the state level, 40 states show a significant trend toward
>more frequent storms with extreme precipitation, while only one state
>(Oregon) shows a significant decline.  
>> 
>>Key findings for the East/North Central Region and Michigan include: 
>>    * Storms with extreme precipitation increased in frequency by 22
>percent in East/North Central Region from 1948 to 2006. 
>>    * Michigan experienced an 18 percent increase in extreme rainstorms
>during the period studied.  
>>    * In addition, Grand Rapids shows a significant increase in the
>frequency of large storms with heavy precipitation, roughly estimated to be
>a 46 percent increase over the nearly 60-year period.  
>> 
>>These findings are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming.
>Scientists expect some parts of the United States to receive more
>precipitation as a result of global warming, while other parts receive less.
>But regardless of the trend in total precipitation, scientists predict that
>the rain and snow that does fall will be more likely to come in big
>downpours and heavy snowstorms.  
>> 
>>Rubley was careful to note that an increase in the frequency of extreme
>rainstorms does not mean more water will be available.  Scientists expect
>that, as global warming intensifies, longer periods of relative dryness will
>mark the periods between extreme rainstorms, increasing the risk of drought.
>For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts
>that, under a scenario of intense warming, the percent of land enduring
>severe drought globally could be 30 times greater by the end of the century
>than it is today.
>> 
>>"How serious this problem gets is largely within our control - but only if
>our country acts boldly to reduce the pollution that fuels global warming,"
>said Abby Rubley with Environment Michigan.
>> 
>>According to the most recent science, the United States must reduce its
>total global warming emissions by at least 15 percent by 2020 and by at
>least 80 percent by 2050 in order to prevent the worst effects of global
>warming.  
>> 
>>"Steep reductions in global warming pollution are challenging but
>achievable," noted Rubley, "and we already have the energy efficiency and
>renewable energy technologies we need to get started."
>> 
>>Tomorrow, the U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works (EPW) Committee is
>expected to vote on amendments to the "Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act
>of 2007" (S. 2191), a global warming bill introduced by Senators Lieberman
>(I-CT) and Warner (R-VA).  While recognizing the important efforts of the
>bill's supporters on this critical issue, [Environment State] said that the
>legislation must be significantly strengthened to address the challenge of
>global warming.  Specifically, the bill's current pollution reduction
>targets fall short of what the science says is necessary to avoid the worst
>effects of global warming, and the bill gives away far too many subsidies to
>dirty and dangerous energy sources.
>> 
>>"In addition to calling for a strengthening of the "Lieberman-Warner
>Climate Security Act of 2007", Senators Levin and Stabenow should cosponsor
>the Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act - the only legislation in
>Congress that would reduce pollution fast enough to protect future
>generations from the worst effects of global warming," concluded Rubley.
>> 
>>###
>> 
>>Environment Michigan Research & Policy Center is a statewide, citizen-based
>environmental advocacy organization.
>> 
>
>==========================================
>Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com
>
>Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
>Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
>Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
>Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 
>
>657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
>(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
>==========================================  
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>ENVIRO-MICH:  Internet List and Forum for Michigan Environmental
>and Conservation Issues and Michigan-based Citizen Action.   Archives at
>http://www.great-lakes.net/lists/enviro-mich/
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>Postings to:  enviro-mich@great-lakes.net      For info, send email to
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==========================================
Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; (517) 332-8987 (fax); ajs@sagady.com
==========================================  


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