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E-M:/ Local Future's Next Michigan Conference + Up to the Minute
- Subject: E-M:/ Local Future's Next Michigan Conference + Up to the Minute
- From: Aaron Wissner <email@example.com>
- Date: Tue, 01 Jul 2008 11:35:54 -0400
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- List-name: Enviro-Mich
- Reply-to: Aaron Wissner <firstname.lastname@example.org>
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Enviro-Mich message from Aaron Wissner <email@example.com>
Here is a quick update on Local Future:
UP TO THE MINUTE
For the past couple of days, I've been updating myself on the state of
the economy, and the state of oil. There are lots of good news stories
and resources on the web. I've listed some of the articles I've read on
I highly recommend a study of the "All of Inflations's Little Parts"
graphic. It tells the story of the shift in our economy.
I've also been getting back to a bit of writing in my LiveJournal. Most
of it is related to peak oil. If you let this page load, and then
scroll down, I think my three articles from June 12 are pretty good.
One is on the chart, mentioned above. Another is about the smart people
in the media who know about peak oil. The final one "To My Sister" is
about "food insurance", or how to make sure food is less of an issue as
we move forward.
Of course, you can read the others as well, but some are experimental.
If you want to try the "Hummer vs. Prius" one, it's a bit technical, but
it points out the rapidity in which one scenario may come to pass.
Just a few thoughts before moving on. Neil King Jr., of the Wall Street
Journal, just published a new article on peak oil, that can be accessed
Stocks are now down 20% from a high less than six months ago. If you
are invested in Ford, GM, Chrysler, or airlines, it is time to get out
(or short the stock, if you know how to do that). I suspect the market
will crash soon, I just don't know when. Over the weekend, I suggested
a 10% of a crash this week, but the 4th of July may be a strong enough
"distractor" that the risk is lower. I give it about a 30% chance of a
crash before Thanksgiving, since crashes typically happen in October,
and last October was getting really dicey. Perhaps the presidential
election will keep the crash at bay.
Jason Pliml has just sent me a list of his top picks, mostly energy
companies and rail, which I can forward to you, if you like. He spoke
at the conference, and has done quite well using some logical thinking
skills and a knowledge of peak oil. I suspect Stephen Leeb's newletter
has similar recommendations. I'm trying to figure out how to buy oil
futures directly, because buying a contract for 8 years out will almost
definitely increase in value given the oil situation.
Keep in mind that global oil extraction is not nearly as important as
"net oil exports", which is what is really available on the market.
That peaked a few years ago, and if put on a graph with oil price, I
think it would be obvious that this is indeed the number that is driving
up oil (in addition to increasing demand). For a close look at demand,
there is a recent article on my blog on that.
Okay, enough for the "UP TO THE MINUTE". Feel free to ask me a question
if you have one! ;-)
You are the first to know that the next conference is set. The
conference will be a weekend conference, similar to the international
conference, but it will be in north-west Michigan at the Crystal
Mountain Ski & Golf Resort. This will be in the middle of November, the
weekend of the 14th through 16th. I toured the facility, and met with
the staff this past Friday. Everything looks exceptional for a great
conference. While at the Michigan Energy Fair over the weekend, I
managed to spread the word, and confirm some new speakers. We now have
20 confirmed speakers in total, with more to come. There is a lot more
to say about this conference, such as the new structure and greater
focus on practical solutions on multiple levels, but more will be on the
web site. I invite and encourage you to take a look.
It went great. I'm working on publishing the videos online. Right now,
Dr. Goodstein's video is being compressed for uploading. I hope to have
a web page for that on the LocalFuture.org web site by the end of the
day Thursday. There are already several talks there. Over 150 people
have already watched the videos we've uploaded for Dr. Ehlers, Pat
Murphy, Megan Quinn Bachman, and myself. I highly recommend Dr. Ehlers
video, both because it is short, and because it is very concise and to
the point. In other news, I've finished the first draft of the DVD of
the Friday evening talks. I am going to add some things, a few tweaks,
and then it will be ready for replication. That will probably take a
month, but then it should be ready.
269 - 795 - 4311 (home)
269 - 487 - 6952 (mobile)
The International Conference on Peak Oil & Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability
Local Future: Saving Earth by Going Local
Value System: Gas Prices, Peak Oil, Money and The Future
Aaron Wissner founded Local Future, a nonprofit educational organization, which hosts The International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change: Paths to Sustainability. Wissner speaks, writes, and produces videos on peak oil, climate change, sustainability, money, and the future. He is a veteran public school educator of sixteen years, and a past president of his local, county, and regional education associations. Wissner is a graduate of the University of Michigan, with a major in mathematics and a minor in physical science. He lives in rural Michigan with his wife Kimberly and their infant son Michael.
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