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E-M:/ Ozone alert - Thursday, West and Southeast Michigan



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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MDEQ-AQD content from Meteorologist Jim Haywood follows....

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FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 through Thursday, August 21st, 2008 

Ozone: 8-hour concentrations are expected to be USG in the Southeast Quadrant of the state and along the central counties of the Lake Michigan shoreline during Thursday. Most of the remainder of the state is expected to stay Moderate. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate through Thursday. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

Atmospheric conditions are coming together to create a potential elevated ozone episode over several southern Michigan counties. The scenario is not as ideal for Western Michigan, so Southeast Michigan will likely take the brunt of this episode. 

Surface winds during Thursday will primarily south-southeast which will pull up air from the Ohio Valley region. That area is already experiencing high ozone. Winds will transport that dirty air up through Ohio picking up additional pollutants from Toledo and Cleveland along the way. Some of that air will intensify over Lake Huron and affect the shoreline area. The remaining portion of the dirty air mass will stream directly inland and affect the interior counties. As such, I am issuing an Ozone Action advisory to the eight county region of southeast Michigan. The air quality models also have several mid-Michigan counties around the Lansing area reaching USG, but I am not convinced that ambient conditions will deteriorate enough in those inland counties to justify an advisory. 

Western Michigan may also be affected, but to a lesser extent, along the central counties of the western lakeshore. South-southwest winds aloft will push some of the Chicago plume over the lake in addition to the increasing background concentration provided by the Ohio Valley air mass. As such, I am also issuing an advisory to the central counties of the western lakeshore. 

I am fairly certain that this will be a one-day event as clouds associated with a weekend cold front should move in during Friday cutting off the power source for continued elevated ozone. We may need to keep an eye on PM-2.5 concentrations, however, as the same precursors needed for ozone may shift over to fine particulates formation. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: 

The models are in general agreement that another cold front will drop through the state late Saturday or early Sunday to reset our air quality concentrations back into the Good category for early next week, 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 

Next forecast update: Thursday, August 21st, 2008 
<http://www.deqmiair.org/assets/MIAIR-forecast-protocol.pdf>



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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; ajs@sagady.com
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