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E-M:/ Smog day Tuesday - West and SE Michigan



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Enviro-Mich message from "Alex J. Sagady & Associates" <ajs@sagady.com>
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MDEQ Air Quality Division meteorologist notice follows...

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*** AN OZONE ACTION DAY IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY, SEPT 2, IN BOTH WEST MICHIGAN AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN *** 

MICHIGAN AIR QUALITY FORECAST: Monday, September 1st, 2008 through Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008 

Ozone: 8-hour ozone concentrations will be mostly High Moderate to USG through Tuesday then Good through the remainder of the week. Ozone Action advisories have been issued for Tuesday. 

PM-2.5: 24-hour concentrations are forecasted to be mostly Moderate through the week. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

High pressure will remain solidly in control of the region through Tuesday. This air mass continues to slowly deteriorate in terms of air quality. Up to this point, southeast winds, low humidity, and cool nights have managed to keep the ozone and fine particulate concentrations from running away under clear skies, weak winds, and strong solar energy. 

The Sunday summary for southeast Michigan showed Good concentrations for ozone and Low Moderate for PM-2.5. West Michigan was solidly Moderate for ozone and Good for PM-2.5. The models for Monday indicate Detroit staying Moderate for ozone while West Michigan will be mostly high Moderate with few scattered USG along the lake shore. 

My primary concern is for Tuesday. The poor air quality potential for Michigan will peak on Tuesday under the last day of this high pressure air mass. A cold front will sweep through the state on Wednesday flushing out the dirty air and filtering in cooler, cleaner Canadian air. In the meantime, how bad will Michigan air quality get during Tuesday? The fact that Monday air concentrations should be solidly Moderate through the state with the potential of a few scattered USG on the West Michigan shore bodes poorly for Tuesday air quality. Our current background air quality added to the Tuesday morning traffic rush and restarting industry after the holiday weekend makes poor air quality conditions seem fairly certain. Consider, too, that winds during Tuesday will shift from southeast to a more southerly direction adding urban transport to the equation. The air quality models also predict widespread USG numbers in the 80 ppb range in both areas. 

As such, my decision is to issue Ozone Action Day ADVISORIES for BOTH West Michigan and Southeast Michigan. 

Wednesday?s cold front should put an end to this episode and, knock on wood, be our last significant ozone event for 2008. 

EXTENDED FORECAST 

The cold front on Wednesday will put the region back into a northerly air flow which should last into the upcoming weekend. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 1st, 2008 Next forecast update: Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008 


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Alex J. Sagady & Associates        http://www.sagady.com

Environmental Enforcement, Permit/Technical Review, Public Policy, 
Expert Witness Review and Litigation Investigation on Air, Water and 
Waste/Community Environmental and Resource Protection
Prospectus at:  http://www.sagady.com/sagady.pdf 

657 Spartan Avenue,  East Lansing, MI  48823  
(517) 332-6971; ajs@sagady.com
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