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GLIN==> Seminar - November 10 (Ann Arbor)



NOAA GREAT LAKES SEMINAR SERIES
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/news/seminars/

Date:
Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Time:
10:30 a.m.

Title:
"Bayesian Methods in Ecological Forecasting"

Speaker:
Dr. E. Conrad Lamon III
Asst. Prof., Dept of Environmental Studies
Louisiana State University


Where:
GLERL Main Conference Room
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI 48105
For directions:

    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/facil/triptik.html


Abstract
I will summarize some key aspects of the Bayesian paradigm, then describe various applications of this approach in my research and how this approach may be useful here at GLERL. The list of contrasts between the Bayesian and frequentist approach to inference is long. Perhaps one of the most important in terms of adaptive ecosystem management is that Bayesian methods provide proper probability distributions on the variable of interest, one of the two key portions of the risk equations in decision theory. I will provide several examples illustrating the advantages of Bayesian inference in ecological decision making, including Bayesian forecasting and retrospective analyses using Dynamic Linear Models, Bayesian Model Averaging for model specification searches and ensemble forecasting, and Bayesian alternatives to familiar tree based methods. I then outline in broad terms the advantages of Bayesian Hierarchical methods for linking multiple ecological process models.

For more information, contact:
Dr. David Schwab
NOAA/GLERL
734-741-2120
david.schwab@noaa.gov

-- 
David F. Reid, Ph.D.
Senior Research Scientist
Director, NOAA National Center for Research on Aquatic Invasive Species
Task Leader, GLERL Nonindigenous Species Program
Member, NOAA Invasive Species Program Management Team
U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI  48105-2945
Voice: 734-741-2019
FAX: 734-741-2055
GLERL home page:
    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov
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