GLIN==> UPCOMING SEMINAR

[Kanika Suri <Kanika.Suri@noaa.gov>]

Dr. Craig Stow from the University of South Carolina will be giving a 
seminar on Thursday, December 8 as a part of the ongoing NOAA Great 
Lakes Seminar Series.

Please find details of his talk listed below. Also, please note that 
there will be another seminar, given by Dr. Elizabeth Alm, at 1030am on 
the same date.


Speaker:* Dr. Craig Stow*, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Title: "Forecasting nitrogen load reductions to meet water quality 
criteria in the Neuse River estuary, NC: a bayesian probability network 
approach"

Date: Thursday December 8

Time: 2:00 pm*

*Location:* *Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI ,48105
Abstract:
In the mid-1990s the Neuse River Estuary in NC experienced algal blooms 
and massive fishkills that captured both local and national media 
attention. While the proximal cause of the fishkills was debated, most 
scientists agreed that the root cause of the problem was excessive 
nitrogen loading from urban and agricultural activities in the 
watershed. Thus, the USEPA required the state of North Carolina to 
develop a nitrogen Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). To support this 
activity three models were developed in parallel – representing 
different levels of spatial and temporal aggregation. We developed a 
Bayesian probability network model to incorporate stakeholder concerns 
and quantify the estuarine response to nitrogen load reductions. This 
model was spatially and temporally aggregated, but capable of 
accommodating the considerable uncertainty that accompanies forecasting 
ecological responses to management actions. A comparison of all three 
models, using independent verification data, revealed comparable, rather 
modest, predictive capabilities for all three models. This result 
underscores the importance of the Adaptive Management process, in which 
management actions are approached as an ecosystem-scale experiment with 
the resultant monitoring information used to learn about system behavior 
and update model forecasts. The Bayesian framework provides an ideal 
template for Adaptive Management with the capability to assimilate new 
data and update model forecasts using Bayes Theorem.



If you have any questions or concerns, please email me at 
kanika.suri@noaa.gov; or call 734-741-2147.

For more information about the seminar series, please visit our website 
at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/news/seminars/

**************************************************************************************** 

Kanika Suri
Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health (CEGLHH)
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI
48105

734-741-2147



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