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Dr. Craig Stow from the University of South Carolina will be giving a seminar on Thursday, December 8 as a part of the ongoing NOAA Great Lakes Seminar Series.

Please find details of his talk listed below. Also, please note that there will be another seminar, given by Dr. Elizabeth Alm, at 1030am on the same date.

Speaker:* Dr. Craig Stow*, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Title: "Forecasting nitrogen load reductions to meet water quality criteria in the Neuse River estuary, NC: a bayesian probability network approach"

Date: Thursday December 8

Time: 2:00 pm*

*Location:* *Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI ,48105
In the mid-1990s the Neuse River Estuary in NC experienced algal blooms and massive fishkills that captured both local and national media attention. While the proximal cause of the fishkills was debated, most scientists agreed that the root cause of the problem was excessive nitrogen loading from urban and agricultural activities in the watershed. Thus, the USEPA required the state of North Carolina to develop a nitrogen Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL). To support this activity three models were developed in parallel – representing different levels of spatial and temporal aggregation. We developed a Bayesian probability network model to incorporate stakeholder concerns and quantify the estuarine response to nitrogen load reductions. This model was spatially and temporally aggregated, but capable of accommodating the considerable uncertainty that accompanies forecasting ecological responses to management actions. A comparison of all three models, using independent verification data, revealed comparable, rather modest, predictive capabilities for all three models. This result underscores the importance of the Adaptive Management process, in which management actions are approached as an ecosystem-scale experiment with the resultant monitoring information used to learn about system behavior and update model forecasts. The Bayesian framework provides an ideal template for Adaptive Management with the capability to assimilate new data and update model forecasts using Bayes Theorem.

If you have any questions or concerns, please email me at kanika.suri@noaa.gov; or call 734-741-2147.

For more information about the seminar series, please visit our website at http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/news/seminars/


Kanika Suri
Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health (CEGLHH)
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI


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