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GLIN==> Seminar Announcement - Ann Arbor

NOAA - U of M Great Lakes Seminar Series

Monday, October 23
10:30 am
Please see http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/news/seminars/ for location and directions.

Speaker: Dr. Sergei Rodionov, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean,
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Title: "Climate and ice cover variations on the interannual to decadal time scales"
Abstract: Progress in seasonal-to-interannual ice cover directly depends on our understanding of the mechanisms linking ice cover with major modes of atmospheric circulation. Recent research shows that these mechanisms may manifest themselves differently on different time scales. Using the Bering Sea as an example, a conceptual model has been developed to explain the relationship between ice cover and storm tracks and how this relationship has varied with respect to the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results of this work have important implications for the Great Lakes. Both the Bering Sea and Great Lakes are located close the zero correlation lines of surface air temperature response to such oscillations as the PDO and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In both cases this suggests not the absence of linkages, but rather strongly non-linear relationships. For example, there is a statistically significant association between mild winters in the Great Lakes basin and strong El Niño events. However, during weak or moderate El Niño events, winters in the Great Lakes tend to be much colder than normal. Another area of a potential improvement in the long-rage forecasting of ice cover is the ability to detect climate regime shifts as soon as possible. A new method is presented that signals a possibility of a regime shift in a near real time. Due to teleconnections, ice cover forecasting involves numerous relationships between climatic variables in various parts of the world. In order to utilize this information effectively, a knowledge management system (KMS) has been developed. It is demonstrated how the KMS can be used to store and retrieve the information, handle the uncertainty in the relationships, create the influence diagram for the target variable (ice cover) and estimate its future value along with the confidence (or probability) of the forecast.

David F. Reid, Ph.D.
Senior Research Scientist
Director, NOAA National Center for Research on Aquatic Invasive Species
Task Leader, GLERL Nonindigenous Species Program
Member, NOAA Invasive Species Program Management Team
U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
2205 Commonwealth Blvd.
Ann Arbor, MI  48105-2945
Voice: 734-741-2019
FAX: 734-741-2055
GLERL home page:

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