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TCA inventory



I need a reality check on some numbers.  I've (very creatively) estimated
total usage of 1,1,1-trichloroethane in the nation in 1997 (both for
chemical intermediate uses and as a solvent) to be 62 million pounds.  Any
comments?

Also, I've come up with a usage profile for TCA in 1997 that looks like this
(specific manufacturing sectors identified with a use are in parens):

54% used as a precursor for other compounds
33% used for metal cleaning (1/2 to SIC 34, 1/4 to SIC 37, 1/4 to remaining
manufacturing industries)
4% to adhesives (manufacturing and non-manufacturing)
3% to electronics manufacture (SIC 36)
3% to coatings and inks (manufacturing and non-manufacturing)
1% to textiles manufacture (SIC 22)
2% to miscellaneous non-manufacturing solvent uses

Does this seem reasonable to everyone out there?  Does anyone know of a
listserve that would be more appropriate to run these by (I'll be checking
them with Katy Wolf, who knows all and who I'm sure will have a thing or two
to say)?

Now, for those who are interested, here's some background.  I'm doing an
emissions inventory of TCA, TCE, perc, and meth in the Great Lakes region (8
states plus Ontario) for CAMP.  Some of you are probably aware that the TRI
is an insufficient source of data for releases of these compounds because
most of the emissions occur where reporting is not required.  In order to
estimate the emissions in the Great Lakes states, I'm taking total demand
(usage) for the nation and divvying it up among the industrial sectors based
on the usage profile, then parceling it out to the Great Lakes states using
TRI-reported losses for the appropriate uses as a measure of business
activity for the various industrial sectors.

Now, for those of you who are sticking with this message despite the last
sentence, TCA is a special problem because production for non-chemical
intermediate uses ended in 1996 but folks are using up their stockpiles and
there are still releases.  In order to estimate the total non-chemical
intermediate usage for the nation, I multiplied TRI-reported losses
(releases to the environment plus amounts destroyed in treatment or energy
recovery) by the ratio of total air emissions:TRI-reported air emissions in
the nation in 1994, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration.
This assumes that the ratio of TRI-reported air releases:total national air
releases is constant over time, and that for any one year, the ratio of
total air releases:total losses is equal to the ratio of TRI-reported air
releases:TRI-reported losses.

To get the usage profile, I extrapolated values from SRI's 1995 report on
TCA (got to 1997 from 1993 based on 1990 and 1993 data).  This gave me 54%
precursor, 33% metal cleaning, and 13% other.  To break out the "other"
category, I took 1989 usage data from HSIA, eliminated aerosol usage, and
maintained the ratios of the remaining uses.

Thanks very much for any help.  Ah, maybe some of you are interested in my
preliminary results (these are for the 8 Great Lakes states and Ontario in
1997 -- Canada doesn't list TCA in their NPRI so I estimated Ontario by
multiplying my Great Lakes states estimates by 1.13 -- this assumes that
releases in Ontario are proportional by population to releases in the Great
Lakes states which shouldn't be too far off because business activity is
fairly similar):

2-digit SIC     % of total air emissions      % of total losses
23 (apparel).................................2............ .........2
25 (furniture).................................2.....................2
28 (chemicals).............................3......................7
29 (refining)..................................0......................2
30 (rubber and plastic)................3......................3
32 (stone, clay, glass)..................0......................7
33 (primary metals).....................3.......................2
34 (fab metals not machinery) 56.....................47
35 (machinery and computers) 1.......................1
36 (electronics)...........................8.....................10
37 (transportation equip)...........8.......................6
45 (I forget)..................................1.......................0
nonmanufacturing......................12.....................10

Total air emissions -- 5.6 million pounds
Surface water releases -- 110 pounds
Releases to land (on- and off-site) -- 8200 pounds
Sent to energy recovery (on- and off-site) -- 830,000 pounds
Destroyed by treatment (on- and off-site) -- 500,000 pounds

Thanks again for any help.

===============================
Kirsten Sinclair Rosselot, P.E.
Process Profiles
P.O. Box 8264
Calabasas, CA 91372-8264

rosselot@ix.netcom.com
http://home.netcom.com/~rosselot

(818) 878-0454
===============================