Scott,
Thanks for raising the issue. I copied some others who might be interested in commenting. Until now I have paused long enough on this question only to do a gut check, with the result being a dope slap upside the head, exclaiming, “No!” Like most people, I generally trust much to unconscious thinking; I appreciate this excuse to consider the subject just a bit more, for my own understanding if nothing else. But just because I needed to work through this doesn’t mean that it will be useful to you. I focused mostly on framing; I find myself wishing I had the time to paw through the research some….
With regards to your question, “Can Nuclear Energy ever be ‘sustainable?’”:
1) Definitions: In
contrast to the Brundtland Commission’s positive-sounding description
of desired outcomes, I think it useful to portray sustainability
as a set of solutions to multiple examples of the dual problem:
a) An overdemand of available resources
or carrying capacity, and
b) An inequitable distribution of resources.
2) Supply v. Demand. The
danger to our high dependence on fossil fuel resources (known variously
as the end of oil, peak oil, or oil shock) offers an obvious driver for
the question. This classic concern posed by petroleum-fueled energy
demand outstripping the accessible reserves has been subject of much discussion
since at least 1956 when Hubbert presented it to the Spring Meeting of
the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio,
Texas (positing what is now known as Hubbert’s Peak). The details of the
precise time of overshoot is still subject of much discussion, most recently
in Matthew Simmon’s book, Twilight in the Desert, http://www.twilightinthedesert.com/
(some nice slides, http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Twilight%20in%20the%20Desert%20Presentation.pdf
), but I doubt anyone seriously disagrees with the concept.
Nuclear energy could
certainly do much to prolong the existing reserves of oil. Add to that
the French example that nuclear power gives them energy independence, and
one can understand why we’re hearing talk about going nuclear. But
distancing the date of the end of resources is hardly evidence of sustainability,
any more than adding electrical production from coal is sustainable. Both
nuclear and coal depend on a finite supply of fuel. Mathematically,
one simply changes the shape of the bell curve, moves the timeline for
Hubbert’s Peak to make this a problem for future generations and
unrealized (but hopefully improved) future technologies. In this context,
nuclear can be described as a bridging technology, but not a sustainable
one. I’m not doing any serious reading for my opinion here, but
it seems possible that Hubbert may have had something to say about this
in his 1956 paper, Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, M.K. Hubbert,
link available in references of this Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
. BTW, I like the quote he is credited with, “Our ignorance is not
so vast as our failure to use what we know.”
[Note to save the discussion about discounting the future for a different day. Be sure to discuss the concept that discount rates are not simply numbers pulled out of a table and plugged into present value formulas, but are functions of several factors, including supply and demand of resources. Also discuss findings in the nascent field of neuroeconomics which suggest that people are hard-wired to discount the future.]
Sustainability tally:
Overdemand: Fails, but need curves to gauge magnitude.
Inequitable distribution: Fails due to temporal shift of impact.
3) Climate Change. A
second driver for the question, i.e., the growing concern about climate
change (some say overemphasis, did you hear the author of Cool It
on NPR the other day http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=14285997&ft=1&f=3
? (I also worry about overemphasis, but I’d like to see his numbers
supporting that viewpoint)), has also been the subject of research for
some time, popularly presented in An Inconvenient Truth. As
pointed out in EPA’s 2007 Draft U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report,
coal-fired power is the biggest contributor to this problem here in the
US (lo-res summary image posted http://www.memagazine.org/april07/features/pwindow/38.jpg
). Nuclear energy’s ability to generate power with little impact
on climate change provides a reasonable basis for characterizing it as
a sustainable source of power with regards to climate change. From
a systems viewpoint, added associated costs that come to mind: petroleum-fueled
transportation-related impact will increase as volumes to existing mining
areas increases and as a developing mining and refining support system
feeds new locations of nuclear reactors.
A clarification/reiteration
of the definitional framework: Here, the question is whether an increasing
production of greenhouse gases creates a reduction in available
resources as opposed to an increasing extraction leading to a reduction
in the availability of a natural resource. Environmental quality
represents a limited resource as much as does resource quantity.
I don’t think anyone on the P2Tech list serve is surprised that
the increase in a pollutant creates a resource limitation, and the above
problem statement uses the terms “available resources or carrying capacity”
to include measurable (but not minable) concepts such as clean air, clean
water, glacial ice mass, temperature degree days at a given latitude, etc.
Sustainability tally:
Overdemand: Fuel use passes; but nuclear fuel mining & transportation
have impact.
Inequitable distribution: Passes, no impact identified.
4) Quality of Life. http://static.flickr.com/34/100660983_3e39fdc74f_b.jpg
Kevin and his fellow Nevadans take a systems view and build on the concept
that we limit a resource by increasing a waste when they remind us that
the Yucca Mountain waste storage facility represents the dwindling capacity
for storage of nuclear waste material. Existing nuclear energy use
has created overdemand for diminishing areas of waste storage, already
in short supply at a static production rate and unchanged for at least
a generation (time which may contribute to a renewed interest).
Tied to this is the system impact of intensive government involvement in
nuclear waste storage development (as well as reactor safety regulation
and siting), which keeps public funds from other government provided services.
Another resource stressed
by the use of nuclear energy is posed by the risks to human health and
the environment associated with increased quantity, transport, and accessibility
of nuclear waste. I heard Hunter Lovins make the point succinctly
the other day by asking, “How many people ask to see the evacuation plan
for a wind farm?” (That’s not to say that opposition to wind doesn’t
exist ( http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/65706/detail/
(I couldn’t find a link to the Comedy Central source, video 91140)). Risk
and risk perception are two different things, obviously. The perception
of risk is relative – and public perception can be changed to change the
quantifiable value of the resource, “safe distance” from nuclear materials.
A good education program can help keep public perception positive. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zPCfrxA4y4
provides probably not a good example, but an entertaining one.
That is not to say that
nuclear wouldn’t have some QoL benefits. Various studies indicate
that sulfate pollution from coal-fired power plants is currently responsible
for 45,000 to 50,000 premature deaths every year. The Nuclear Regulatory
Commission estimates that a worst-case disaster associated with a nuclear
plant would be around 100,000 in the US. If nuclear energy
displaced sulfur-emitting coal, QoL in this regard would improve. Your
question was not about comparing the two, however.
Nuclear energy’s increased
risks would occur concurrently with the increasing risks associated with
other fundamental quality of life issues, such as the overdemand of food
supply (I believe World Overshoot Day occurs in just a couple of weeks).
I don’t know that academicians have developed a good measure of
the carrying capacity associated with quality of life and multiple risks
posed to it. Concerns have been part of the zeitgeist for years, check
out the still pertinent introductory scene to the 1973 film, Soylent
Green, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKjT1v5A4Wo
.
[A brief sidenote & soapbox: One of the things which irks me about discussions promoting the positives of nuclear power (in this case) is the sleight of hand, the biasing of information associated with advocates for the position. How anyone can suggest that nuclear, or coal, be seriously considered as a perfect solution, de-emphasizing the inherent problems, strikes me as naive at best and perhaps willful ignorance. Like the promises of the dot-com or real estate booms, we consumers of information need to always be a little watchful (not everyone is from Missouri, but we should all be thinking, “show me”). In the heat of promotion, even the downsides are described as positives, which is an example of the logic of “The Parable of the Broken Window” (don’t confuse with “Fixing Broken Windows”) and used to great comic effect in the movie, “The Fifth Element” when antagonist Zorg breaks a glass to illustrate that destructive behavior is a good thing for society. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krcNIWPkNzA The parable was told by Frederic Bastiat in 1850, who is also credited with the following useful quote, “…the bad economist pursues a small present good, which will be followed by a great evil to come, while the true economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil. In fact, it is the same in the science of health, arts, and in that of morals.” That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen, http://bastiat.org/en/twisatwins.html ]
As Kevin pointed out, the folks around
Yucca Mountain think they are subject to an inequitable impact (But what
about the compensation of additional jobs? See Parable of the
Broken Window, cited above.) Here in Nebraska, our current Senator
Ben Nelson, then governor, left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth by the
way that his administration reneged on a multi-state compact to use Boyd
County as a site for low level radioactive waste. I think the socio-politial
situation clearly indicates the perceived and probably measurable inequity
in resource distribution, e.g., the resource of living at a “safe” distance
from waste materials. Adding more plants, even without adding more
storage facilities, only exacerbates the inequality to those along transportation
routes and storage areas by increasing the frequency of potential exposures
of nuclear waste.
The quality of life issues here
are strongly tied to inequitable distribution. In part, this is due to
the nature of political decision-making, in part because of the still prevalent
business practice of seeking to externalize as many costs as possible.
By definition, such externalization means that one party benefits
by discharging their responsibility or adverse outcomes to another party,
often without their express or implied consent.
Sustainability tally:
Overdemand: Fails by increasing risks and reducing availability (quality)
of multiple common pool resources.
Inequitable distribution: Fails due to (a) externalization of costs which
impacts (b) disparate parts of society.
5) Path Dependance. Economists
describe production technology choices as “path dependence,” a term that
was coined by Amory Lovins in his 1977 work, Soft Energy Paths: Towards
a Durable Peace. The hard path, as he described it, is the choice of
coal and nuclear, and the soft path is a choice of energy efficiency and
renewable energy technologies. Once a path is chosen, which we have
now lived with for some time, other paths are closed.
Rather than increasing
a demand for production technologies of the soft path, nuclear represents
an overdemand of the hard path square peg into ever more rounding holes.
As noted above, nuclear energy is in essence an extension of the
mining extraction and coal-fired power plant path, a path about
which we are once again asking the questions posed in the `70’s. As
such, it’s a continuation of an unsustainable path. One could just
as easily substitute another fuel source, e.g., vivoleum, into the system,
but that wouldn’t make the system more sustainable. It’s a bit
like the concept of the man with a hammer – everything around him
looks like a nail. Vivoleum: http://www.theyesmen.org/en/hijinks/vivoleum
and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkLzK13rI-Y
.
Goodstein does a good
job describing associate inequalities. “First, infrastructure and
R&D investments are increasingly directed toward supporting the chosen
technology and diverted from the competing path. Second, the chosen
technology is able to exploit economies of scale to consolidate its cost
advantage. Third, complementary technologies develop that are tailored
to the chosen path, further disadvantaging the competing path.” Economics
and the Environment, 4th ed. Goodstein, E.S. 2005
Sustainability tally:
Overdemand: Fails by limiting resources for possible alternative technologies.
Inequitable distribution: Fails to provide a level playing field.
Hope that helps, Scott. Left for another day is a discussion about the definition of equitable. It’s been fun to consider the question, “Can Nuclear Energy ever be ‘sustainable?’”
"IT DOESN'T, 'n YOU CAN'T!
I WON'T, 'n IT DON'T!
IT HASN'T, IT ISN'T, IT EVEN AIN'T
'N IT SHOULDN'T . . .
IT COULDN'T!" - Frank Zappa
|
Richard
Yoder, PE
Director, P2ric.org University of Nebraska at Omaha 6001 Dodge Street, RH308 Omaha, NE 68182 vox: 402-554-6257 fax: 402-554-6260 http://www.p2ric.org/ | 
|
P2RIC, the Pollution Prevention |
| "Butner, R Scott"
<scott.butner@pnl.gov>
Sent by: owner-p2tech@great-lakes.net 09/06/2007 03:50 PM
|
|
Well, can it?
And if the answer is "yes" -- what would it take to make it so?
These are not idle musings on the part of a scruffy, distractable, overweight nerd, either.
Nope. Not idle in the least.
(The rest is pretty much spot on, of course.)
I ask these questions because I've been approached about making a presentation on this topic at a conference which is coming up later this fall, and wish to gather some informed perspectives on the subject. As I often do when faced with a question that's over my head, technically, I've come to P2TECH in hopes of finding some bits of wisdom. And maybe some viewpoints that challenge my own.
I recognize this is an open-ended question -- I think by now we all have a grasp of what the notion of sustainability means, but am not sure I've seen anything really robust in terms of quantifiable definitions.
Yes, I'm aware of any number of sustainability metrics and indicators that have been used (and in fact plan to use them prominently in my talk).
But most of these metrics allow for more wiggle room than my most comfy blue jeans, now that I've lost 22 lbs.
(had to sneak that in there, somewhere!)
So consider it an invitation to open-ended answers, as well.
If you have an opinion regarding either question: whether nuclear power CAN be sustainable, or what it would take to MAKE it sustainable -- I'm eager to hear it. If I end up using your ideas in my talk, I'll be sure to provide appropriate attribution.
The conference is in mid-November, but I'd be especially interested in comments I receive early enough to incorporate into a broader framework -- say, Oct 1.
I'll be sure to share the presentation with any who wish to see it, once it's been prepared.
Thanks in advance,
=================================================
Scott Butner
Senior Research Scientist, Knowledge Transformation & Integration Group
Pacific NW National Laboratory
PO Box 999
Richland, WA 99352
Voice: (509)-372-4946/Fax: (509) 375-2443
E-mail: scott.butner@pnl.gov
=================================================
