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From: Jean Seguro <jseguro@yahoo.com>
To: bioenergy@crest.org <bioenergy@crest.org>
Subject: Oil Companies and renewables...
Date: Thursday, August 26, 1999 3:29 PM
 >From Issue #94   (August 23) TRENDS in RENEWABLE ENERGIES
  Global emissions will continue to rise unless all countries and all industries work to reduce the amount of GHG that  is  released into the atmosphere, says Mobil Oil.
  "Renewable energy fuels, notably solar, could play a bigger  role if  technology breakthroughs can bring down costs" in  the  generation of electricity, says Mobil's report,
  'Climate:  Technology and Carbon Dioxide Emissions -- a Global  Review  and Assessment.' Building more efficient generation  plants  and switching to lower-emission fuels such as
  natural gas,  could cut CO2 emissions from developed countries by  as  much as 40% by 2030, over what they would be without  the  measures. By the end of the 21st century, developing
  countries are projected to emit 80% of the world's  CO2.  Consumption of fossil fuels in developing countries  will more  than double over the next three decades years as  their
  economies grow. Reducing worldwide emissions of CO2  cannot succeed unless all countries and all  industries join in  the effort, says the study. Deregulation and  privatization in
  electricity generation will create market conditions  that drive  energy efficiency and greater use of cogeneration.  In the long  run, "the path to stabilizing emission levels will  likely involve
  substantial cost, affect living standards, trigger  global  regulation of energy resources and require the  participation of  every nation," the report concludes.
The solar energy subsidiary of one of the world's largest oilcompanies is expanding into new markets in India and SriLanka. Shell Renewables International has formed Shell Renewables India, and has purchased an existing solar energy company that will be renamed Shell Renewables
Lanka. The Indian operation will market PV systems to rural areas, and will require an initial investment of US$2.4 million. It will move into wind energy and biomass later. Shell has a
PV manufacturing plant in the Netherlands and a new plant inGermany will be finished later this year. The Solar Power &Light Company in Sri Lanka has been selling PV systems to
rural areas for more than a decade, and the renamed firm will continue to market imported Shell PV modules and locally manufactured batteries. Shell has identified renewable energy
as its fifth core business and plans to invest $500 million overthe next five years. It predicts that renewables will provide upto 10% of the world's energy within 25 years, rising to 50% by
2050. Renewables will be fully competitive with conventionalenergy sources by 2020, says Shell, as the cost of PV drops80% and the cost of wind electricity levels out. Fossil fuels will
reach their maximum potential by 2020-2030, at which tim the world will increasingly turn its attention toward renewable energy sources.
Mr. Jean V. Seguro
Colorado State University
Department of Mechanical Engineering
PhD Candidate (Biomass/Wind Energy/Solar Water Pumping)
Fax:(970) 491-3827
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Comments from K Schlansker
        Two of the important statements in this report are that living standards will be affected and that by 2050, renewable energy will equal fossil fuels. What is not stated is that the cost of energy by 2050 both for fossil and renewable fuels will be much greater than now. This means that in order to maintain a decent life it will be completely necessary to change life styles to reduce wasteful consumption. This is why I am advocating the Ecomindium as a universal solution for Sustainability, energy conservation,  poverty, and land conservation.