SG-W:/ Sprawl

The issues of Urban Sprawl, running out of energy, and space needed for planting programs are all joined at the hip. Running low on energy within 30 years is almost a certainty. Newmarket is a bad development because villages must include factories, department stores, schools, and churches in their design in order to stop commuting. Ann Arbor is the place to start any design changes. On the corner of Ellsworth and Carpenter we have at least three department stores either built or about to be built. Many acres of land have been ruined. Yet we have no department stores in Ann Arbor that people can walk to. This battle against Sprawl is so critical that we must find ways to activate more people. The students are the ones who will suffer the most. I am trying to get up the nerve to pass the following paper to high school students. Any helpful comments or assistance would be appreciated. I hope you all try to get letters and viewpoints into the papers on this subject. However. nature and Nimby arguments are not good enough to sway the bulk of the population. Somehow we must make people understand that our society is completely Unsustainable and that it will fall apart with disastrous consequences unless something is done. The increased land area that we will need to grow biomass is being completely ignored. We must do something for to the children. Let me ask all of you a question. Suppose tommorrow there is no gasoline at the pump, no gas to heat your house, and no electricity for your lights. How long will it be before you starve to death?

    To the Students       The following data concerning the World availability of oil was taken from a graph on page 56 of the May 2000 Popular Science:
            Year 2000 73 Million barrels of oil/day,    2010 83 Million (peak), 2020 40 million, 2030 22 million, 2040 14 million, 2050 10 million, 2070 5 million
     This graph may not be exactly correct but it shows what is going to happen. Without oil this country does not move, work, eat, or stay warm. We are totally dependent on it. You who are in high school now will be completely affected by this disaster in the making. The lives of your children will be completely ruined by the present ubiquitous waste of natural resources.
    According to numbers I have gotten from the Internet, we have about 40 years of natural gas left at present consumption. Any attempt to substitute natural gas for oil or coal will cause a much quicker depletion. Therefore natural gas should not be considered as a back up energy source. Coal is supposed to exist in larger quantities. However, mining coal requires large amounts of oil. Without it, coal mining is backbreaking and dangerous work. Furthermore, scientists fear that extended use of coal will greatly accelerate Global Warming. Making liquid fuels from coal will be unbearably expensive. As far as I have been able to find out, there is not enough nuclear material to fuel us for very long. Presently we have about 110 nuclear power plants which supply about 7% of our energy usage. We would have to build at least 1200 new plants to completely power the USA. Imagine the disposal problems! Fusion is just an idea. There never has been one iota of useful power from fusion. Don't depend on it!
     There are several mechanisms by which Global Warming can upset the weather enough to destroy agriculture and starve millions of people. By the time that we know this is going to happen it will be too late. Even if the odds of catastrophic Global warming were as low as .01% we still could not in good conscience take the risk. I think the probability is far higher than that.
      Solar, wind, and biomass energy will help fill the void. However there is not enough area in the USA to grow all of our energy from biomass, there may not be enough good wind sites, and Solar energy is very expensive. In addition to this, both solar and wind are part time fuels which require expensive energy storage and huge capital outlays. We need to be spending several trillions now. Running out of energy and Global Warming are both greater threats than military attack.
   The energy problem will be exacerbated by increased population due to immigration, In addition to the energy problem we may be running short of farmland, fertilizer, topsoil, water for irrigation, and strategic metals. Almost all energy machines use stainless steel in their construction. Many of the ingredients in stainless steel are imported.      In my opinion we really can not count on supplying more than about 30 % of our present energy consumption from Solar, wind, and biomass. Even that portion will require massive amounts of capital and massive planting programs. The other 70% will have to come simply from using less energy. This means a total change in life styles.
    Europe gives us a clue as to what must be done. They have lived for centuries in 4 story apartments and traveled by train and streetcar. Today Europe uses less than half our per capita energy consumption. We will have to give up cars, airplanes, and single family houses. Cities and towns will have to be completely planned so that people can walk to work, school, or wherever. The only kind of construction we can permit would be four stories up and 2 stories down. Larger buildings are easier to heat and cool. they also save farmland and reduce travel distances.
     This is your future. Students must unite to study these problems, face the inevitable, and become a political force for Sustainability. The older generations have been so corrupted by Materialism that they are not willing to face the truth. They are abusing you by allowing Urban Sprawl and the SUV to dominate our land. If we do not reduce our consumption of resources now then tragedy is sure to follow. Action must be taken at the political and scientific level. There must be an attempt to bring these issues into local, state, and national elections.
     There is a planned development called Newmarket in Pittsfield township which will destroy many acres of farm and nature land. It is supposed to be a well planned community but no such development can be Sustainable if there is not a total integration of factory, farm, work, and school so that commuting is eliminated. In other words people must live close to their jobs. Please unite against this development. We need to improve our present cities before we destroy any more farms.
     Kermit Schlansker, PE 734 971 5283    kssustain@provide.net
             Web page at http://www.provide.net/~kssustain