Just last week Simmons sounded the alarm in a speech to the Subcommittee on Energy & Mineral Resources of the Committee on Resources of The House of Representatives. The speech was entitled "US Domestic Natural Gas Supply & Demand: The Contribution of Public Lands & The OCS" and is online at: http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research/default.asp?viewnews=true&newstype=1&viewdoc=true&doc=138
In this speech, Simmons said "The natural gas supply is particularly threatened by increasing evidence that the current supply base is now declining at a rate where half of the current supply will be consumed by 2005. This means that 50%, or 25 Bcf per day of new gas production needs to be added merely to keep the current base flat." (page 5 at the above URL)
If half the gas supply is going to disappear in four years, that will mean a rate of decline of 18% per year. Assuming that this rate applies only to the US, it is considerably greater than Richard Duncan's estimated rate of .5% until 2007 and 1.5% until 2040 for the US (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/dieoff/message/10).
The Canadian Gas Potential Committee's Figure 5 at http://www.geo.ucalgary.ca/NatGasCan/ceripaper.pdf shows supplies going from 5 Tcf to .5 Tcf per year in 25 years. This would indicate an average rate of decline of approximately 10% per year, but the steep part of the decline wouldn't begin for a few years.
If Canadian gas continues to provide 15% of the US supply, and the average rates of decline stay the same for the two countries, the combined rate of decline for US supply should be something like 17% per year. At that rate, US supply would be effectively gone in what, 10 years? It looks like Olduvai Cliff could be much sooner and much steeper than previously assumed.
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