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SG-W:/ Fw: [energyresources] Articles
These two news articles are useful in getting a view of the
future. The fight against Urban Sprawl and toward Sustainable communities is
much more important than you think.
Kermit Schlansker Ann Arbor, Mi
From: Dana Visalli <firstname.lastname@example.org>
To: EnergyResources <email@example.com>
Cc: firstname.lastname@example.org <email@example.com>
Date: Thursday, August 16, 2001 10:40 AM
Subject: [energyresources] Articles
>Here are two interesting items from the recent edition of Carfree Times.
>The article on China notes that 92% of last year’s growth in global oil
>demand came from Asia. They’re spending our childrens' inheritence!
>The second article reiterates the failure of increased drilling to locate
>appreciably more natural gas in the US. The author notes that a 45%
>increase is forecast for 2015, but production only increased 2% last year.
>Interestingly, if production increases 2% a year it will double in 35
>Just ask Al Bartlett.
>China and the rest of developing Asia are driving the world oil market.
>Andrew Tanzer and Chandrani Ghosh, Forbes Global, 07.23.01
>The USA consumes 19 million barrels of oil a day, four times as much as
>China; on a per-capita basis, the U.S. burns 20 times as much. Yet it can
>argued that China already has more influence on oil prices than the USA.
>"Oil is priced at the margin," says Lawrence Goldstein of the Petroleum
>Industry Research Foundation. Prices are driven by that last barrel of
>demand, not by the installed base of consumption. US demand is huge but is
>growing only 1% a year, and consumption in the EU is flat. Meanwhile,
>in China and India is increasing rapidly. Last year Asia accounted for 92%
>of net global demand growth.
>During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, oil demand in the region declined
>for the first time in nearly two decades. World oil prices crashed to below
>$10 a barrel. When the Asian economies rebounded vigorously, oil prices
>rocked to more than $30 a barrel.
>By 2010, Asia will be importing 20 million barrels of oil a day, twice as
>much as the USA does today, and 80% of it will have to come from the Middle
>East. China, a net oil exporter as recently as 1993, is now importing 1.4
>million barrels a day. With more than 50% of the world's population, East
>Asia has only 4% of the world's proven oil reserves. Many of Asia's largest
>oilfields are drying up, and few good prospects remain to be explored.
>China and India will tend to align more with the Middle East. China may
>barter weapons for oil, and some suspicious trades have already occurred.
>Natural Gas Pinch
>High prices and surging demand have sparked a natural gas drilling boom in
>the USA that will yield about 18,000 wells drilled 2001, some 60% more than
>just two years ago, and close to the all-time record. All this drilling,
>however, is resulting in miniscule increases in gas production, not nearly
>enough to meet the increasing demand, which arises from the many new
>natural-gas-fired power plants coming on line now.
>The US Department of Energy (DoE) has projected a 45% increase in gas use
>2015, but, despite the drilling surge, production is only up by about 2%
>this year. The DoE thinks that the number of wells drilled annually must
>rise to more than 30,000, but even that won't be enough - imports from
>Canada, Mexico, and even farther afield will be needed to meet demand for
>gas. Wells younger than three years old now produce 60% of US natural gas,
>which means that drilling must continue at a frenzied pace just to maintain
>All of this demand leads to pressure to open public lands for drilling.
>Industry officials claim that federal restrictions on public lands make it
>difficult to drill into the richest of energy reserves, such as those in
>Rocky Mountains, now closed to energy exploration. Officials claim that
>continued drilling in the old fields is not going to yield enough gas.
>Fields in the Gulf of Mexico are seeing declines as great as 40% per annum
>in the production of existing wells.
>Your message didn't show up on the list? Complaints or compliments?
>Drop me (Tom Robertson) a note at firstname.lastname@example.org
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