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SG-W:/ Re: Oil?



            Your source of information is wrong. The pessimistic estimate is
that there are less than 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil left on
Earth. Other estimates coming from the USGS and EIA are that there may be as
much as 3 trillion. Presently the world is using about 27 billion barrels
per year. It has been predicted that world demand may go as high as 40
million barrels. At 30 million barrels/yr one trillion barrels would last
about 33 years. Three trillion barrels would last 100 years. Believe me
there are no credible estimates that there are 500 years left. I believe the
pessimists because they are almost all retired oil geologists with no axe to
grind and a lot of experience. I also believe in the morality of preparing
for worst case. Any decrease in availability of oil will cause great
joblessness in this society. Other countries will be competing for the
available oil. It will take us 30 years and 30 trillion dollars to prepare
for this. WE need to start now. Our children will suffer. Global Warming may
wipe out many island nations thus creating  millions of refugees.
Conservation is the only way to go..

                                       Kermit Schlansker
-----Original Message-----
From: Dean Moore <dean2@telesurf.com.py>
To: kssustain@provide.net <kssustain@provide.net>
Date: Saturday, December 15, 2001 10:24 AM
Subject: Oil?


>Kermit,
>
>          "This is an 8 page article talking about how near we are to oil
>depletion. It is worth reading. The battle against urban sprawl is helpful
>but does not go far enough. We need local research projects in low..."
>
>I haven't read the article yet, but I will.  But the phrase "how near we
are
>to oil depletion" distubs me.  I am 100% for solar enegy, wind energy, and
>most all alternative energy resources,  but the main reason they are NOT
>being developed more rapidly is the massive amount of global petroleum
>reserves that exist.   It is my understanding that the estimated oil
>reserves in the Caspian basin region alone (why the war in Afghanistan is
>going on) are sufficient to run the world for another 500 years.
>
>Dean Moore
>




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