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SG-W:/ Re: Oil?



        The word millions in my original post should of course have been
billions. I wished to air this post in order show the much lower estimate
that Dean has found.
         As far as future energy is concerned it is my belief that wind and
biomass will be much cheaper than solar but we still must have it. My best
initial goal would be 40% conservation, 20% coal, 10% nuclear, and 10% each
from solar, wind, and biomass. We need to keep doing research on nuclear but
must never put much faith in it.
         Trillions of dollars will be needed to do this job. We don't need
tax cuts and we don't need welfare programs. We must put our money into
factories which make useful products. in particular, solar, wind, and
biomass.
           No I am not from an oil company. I am an engineer. I have
downloaded many articles on oil.
                            Kermit Schlansker
-----Original Message-----
From: Dean Moore <dean2@telesurf.com.py>
To: Kermit Schlansker <kssustain@provide.net>
Date: Saturday, December 15, 2001 6:34 PM
Subject: Re: Oil?


>You are right.  I was reading somewhere that the U.S. State Department had
>estimated in 1998 that the Caspian region had the world's largest untapped
>oil reserves.  But I can't locate that....at any rate I found this article
>by a news staffer at the San Francisco Chronicle...
>
>http://www.rense.com/general16/thewaronterrorism.htm
>
>But it estmates only 50 billion barrels.....no where close to a trillion
>barrels.
>
>You're not with an oil company, are you?
>
>Thanks,
>Dean Moore
>
>>             Your source of information is wrong. The pessimistic estimate
>is
>> that there are less than 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil left on
>> Earth. Other estimates coming from the USGS and EIA are that there may be
>as
>> much as 3 trillion. Presently the world is using about 27 billion barrels
>> per year. It has been predicted that world demand may go as high as 40
>> million barrels. At 30 million barrels/yr one trillion barrels would last
>> about 33 years. Three trillion barrels would last 100 years. Believe me
>> there are no credible estimates that there are 500 years left. I believe
>the
>> pessimists because they are almost all retired oil geologists with no axe
>to
>> grind and a lot of experience. I also believe in the morality of
preparing
>> for worst case. Any decrease in availability of oil will cause great
>> joblessness in this society. Other countries will be competing for the
>> available oil. It will take us 30 years and 30 trillion dollars to
prepare
>> for this. WE need to start now. Our children will suffer. Global Warming
>may
>> wipe out many island nations thus creating  millions of refugees.
>> Conservation is the only way to go..
>>





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